homework 3-key

# homework 3-key - 4Q 2009 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 4Q 2008 1Q...

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error 4Q 2009 200 220 1Q 2008 220 215 2Q 2008 215 210 3Q 2008 210 220 4Q 2008 220 225 1Q 2009 225 240 2Q 2009 240 255 3Q 2009 260 240 720 240 20 4Q 2009 270 251.67 755 252 18 1Q 2010 261.67 785 262 1. Using the 3 quarter moving average: What is the forecast for 3Q 2009, 4Q 2009, 1Q 2. Starting with 1Q 2008 compute the forecast using exponential smoothing with a smoothing factor of .6 0.6 0.4 forecast actual 4Q 2009 200 220 1Q 2008 215 220 220 2Q 2008 210 217 217 3Q 2008 220 212.8 213 4Q 2008 225 217.12 218 1Q 2009 240 221.85 222 2Q 2009 255 232.74 233 3Q 2009 260 246.1 247 13 4Q 2009 270 254.44 255 15 1Q 2010 263.78 264 14 3. Which of these 2 forecast methods provides a more accurate forecast? exponential smooting provides a smaller MAD and smaller forecast errors 4. Compute the forecast for 4Q 2009 and 13Q 2010 using a 3 quarter weighted movin most recent data weighted at .5; the second most recent data weighted at .35; and the third most recent data weighted at .15 forecast actual

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homework 3-key - 4Q 2009 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 4Q 2008 1Q...

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