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Stat IV - Friday October 1, 2010 chapter 4 #3(continued)

# Stat IV - Friday October 1, 2010 chapter 4 #3(continued) -...

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Chapter 4 Average Forecast Month AP=1 AP=2 AP=3 AP=4 AP=5 AP=6 AP=1 May 19 June 23 July 26 23.0 21.0 19.3 17.8 16.6 15.5 3.0 August 30 26.0 24.5 22.7 21.0 19.4 18.2 4.0 September 28 30.0 28.0 26.3 24.5 22.8 21.2 2.0 October 18 28.0 29.0 28.0 26.8 25.2 23.7 10.0 November 16 18.0 23.0 25.3 25.5 25.0 24.0 2.0 December 14 16.0 17.0 20.7 23.0 23.6 23.5 2.0 January 14 15 16 19 21.2 22 3.83 18.75 Moving Average Method Most recent data is most relavent than older data; AP= Average Period, Ap=1 is called Naïve method; AD= Absolute Deviation(Error) MAD= Mean Absolute Deviation Sp for AP= 1,2,…6 in this case we found out that AP=1 has lowes Therefore, We will use AP=1 to make a forecast for next January Actual Sales January March May July September November January 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Actual Sales Actual Sa

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AP=2 AP=3 AP=4 AP=5 AP=6 5.0 6.7 8.3 9.4 10.5 5.5 7.3 9.0 10.6 11.8 0.0 1.7 3.5 5.2 6.8 11.0 10.0 8.8 7.2 5.7 7.0 9.3 9.5 9.0 8.0 3.0 6.7 9.0 9.6 9.5 5.25 6.94 8.00 8.50 8.72 st MAD; which is 14. ales
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Stat IV - Friday October 1, 2010 chapter 4 #3(continued) -...

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