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reading # 8 - INTERSTATE PEACEKEEPING CAUSAL MECHANISMS AND...

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I NTERSTATE P EACEKEEPING : C AUSAL M ECHANISMS AND E MPIRICAL E FFECTS Virginia Page Fortna* Department of Political Science & Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies Columbia University permanent address 420 W. 118 th Street New York NY 10027 w. 212 854-0021 h. 212 662-5395 f. 212 864-1686 AY 2004-2005 address Hoover Institution Stanford University Stanford CA 94305 w. 650 723-0746 c. 503 548-7429 f. 650 723-1687 email: [email protected] Version: September 14, 2004 * The author owes debts of gratitude to more people than can be listed here for help and feedback with the project of which this paper is a part. She thanks in particular, Nisha Fazal, Hein Goemans, Lise Howard, Bob Jervis, Bob Keohane, Lisa Martin, Jack Snyder, Alan Stam, Barb Walter, and Suzanne Werner. This research was made possible by grants from the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
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I NTERSTATE P EACEKEEPING : C AUSAL M ECHANISMS AND E MPIRICAL E FFECTS A BSTRACT Peacekeeping is perhaps the international community’s most important tool for maintaining peace in the aftermath of war. Its practice has evolved significantly in the past ten or fifteen years as it has been used increasingly in civil wars. However, traditional peacekeeping between states is not well understood. Its operation is under-theorized and its effects under-tested. This article explores the causal mechanisms through which peacekeepers keep peace, and examines its empirical effects after interstate wars. To take the endogeneity of peacekeeping into account, it also examines where peacekeepers tend to be deployed. Duration analysis shows that, all else equal, peacekeeping significantly increases the chances that peace will last. Peacekeepers can help adversaries to maintain peace by making surprise attack more difficult, by reducing uncertainty about enemy intentions, and by preventing and controlling accidents and incidents that can spiral back to war.
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1 Maintaining peace in the aftermath of war is a difficult endeavor, and the international community is often called on to help. Arguably the most important innovation in international conflict management since World War II is the practice of peacekeeping: the deployment of international personnel to monitor a cease-fire or to interpose themselves between belligerents to keep peace after a war. 1 During most of its history, peacekeeping was used to help maintain peace after interstate wars. Since the end of the Cold War, the practice has been adapted to the context of civil wars, taking on new tasks such as election monitoring, police training, and even providing an interim administration. This article analyzes whether and how peacekeeping stabilizes peace in its traditional interstate setting.
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