reading # 9

reading # 9 - Leaders and International Conflict Giacomo...

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Unformatted text preview: Leaders and International Conflict Giacomo Chiozza & H. E. Goemans October 22, 2009 Contents List of Tables vii List of Figures xiv Acknowledgments xvi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 The Central Question . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.2 The Central Argument . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1.3 Leaders in the Study of International Politics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.3.1 Is War Costly for Leaders ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1.4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2 When Do Leaders Fight? 10 2.1 How leaders are removed from office . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.1.1 Explaining the forcible removal from office . . . . . . . . . . . 14 2.1.2 Fighting and Gambling for Survival . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.1.3 International conflict and regular removals . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.2 Competing Leader-level Explanations of International Conflict . . . . 27 2.2.1 In- and out-group bias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 ii 2.2.2 Competence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 2.3 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 3 International Conflict and the Fate of Leaders 38 3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 3.2 The Consequences and Manner of Losing Office . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 3.3 International Conflict and the Fate of Leaders . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3.4 Competing Risks: Regular and Forcible Removals . . . . . . . . . . . 48 3.4.1 Conflict and Domestic Political Institutions . . . . . . . . . . 53 3.4.2 Conflict and Domestic Political Unrest . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 3.4.3 Conflict and Economic Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 3.4.4 Conflict and Economic Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 3.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 4 The Fate of Leaders and Incentives to Fight 72 4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 4.2 Measuring the Risk of Losing of Office . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 4.3 A Statistical Test of Our Theory of Conflict Initiation . . . . . . . . . 81 4.3.1 The Risk of Conflict Initiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 4.3.2 Conflict Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 4.3.3 An Overview of the Findings from the Statistical Model . . . 88 4.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 5 Case Studies: Central America 1840 1918 94 5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 5.2 Central America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 iii 5.2.1 Empirical Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 5.2.2 Ideology and International Conflict in Central America . . . . 109 5.3 Birth Pangs of Independence 18401848 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115....
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This note was uploaded on 11/29/2010 for the course IR 109 taught by Professor Heinz during the Spring '10 term at Rochester.

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reading # 9 - Leaders and International Conflict Giacomo...

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