lect17-Prob Refresh

lect17-Prob Refresh - ISE 460: Engineering E conomy...

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Click to edit Master subtitle style 12/1/10 ISE 460: Engineering Economy University of Southern California Fall 2010 J oseph Chow Week 10: Lecture 17
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12/1/10 HW Schedule Summary 12/1/10 22 HW #6, due 10/29/10 Lecture 15 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4
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12/1/10 Case Study Presentation Randomized Order (11/23, Orde r Team Orde r Team 1 Atia 15 Kung 2 Fischer 16 Shanahan 3 Fulcher 17 Onafalujo 4 Marvasti 18 Liu 5 Walker 19 Chapman and Larocque 6 Kolandjian 20 Karafeizis 7 Bawdekar 21 Ramesh 8 22 Johnson 9 Zhou and Lu 23 Fatemi 10 Pottenger 24 Yadav 11 Urruela 25 Martinez 33 Italicized names are DEN
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12/1/10 Review Prior Discounted cash flow methods Depreciation, Taxes Inflation This Week Uncertainty: Breakeven Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis Probability Refresher 12/1/10 44
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12/1/10 Probability: A Crash Course with Emphasis on Engineering Economics Devore, J.L., 2008. Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences, 7th Edition , Duxbury, USA. 12/1/10 55
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12/1/10 Characterizing Uncertainty When an event is uncertain , it can be represented by one out of many different possible outcomes One way to characterize this uncertainty (there ARE others) is the concept of probability 66
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12/1/10 Probability A mapping that assigns a likelihood of one outcome out of a number of possible outcomes for a given event E.g. chance of rain tomorrow? Exact number of people residing in California right now? 77 What’s the event? What’s the outcome?
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12/1/10 Measuring Events with Numerous Outcomes What is the “Height of a Student in this Classroom”? There are multiple answers So we use other measures for describing such an event/variable 88
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12/1/10 Graphical Measure: the Histogram 99 What is the percent of temp < 45? What do you want to know? Where “temp” is located around How it varies
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12/1/10 Point Measures Measures of Location Mean: for a set of points with no other information, it’s average & sum and divide by N Median: the middle point Measures of Variability Variance: sum of differences from mean, squared, then divided by N (or N – 1 if it’s sample variance) 1010
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lect17-Prob Refresh - ISE 460: Engineering E conomy...

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