10/25/2010 Human Problem Solving Lecture Study Questions #4 L.59. In a large population, one person out of one thousand has a certain disease, X. There is a test for the disease, and if a person has X, then the test is positive. Unfortunately, if a person does not have X, then the test yields a positive result 5% of the time anyway. Suppose a person tests positive-- which of the following numbers is closest to his or her probability of having X? (1.0, .95, .75, .40, .02). Harvard Medical students tended to pick which of these probabilities as their answer? What aspect of Bayes’ theorem did they seem to neglect? L.60. In the case of syllogistic reasoning I explained that for the conclusion to follow from the premises it must be the case that it follows from every possible representation of the premises. Given this, why is it incorrect to conclude that ‘Some C are A’ from the premises ‘Some A are B’ and ‘Some B or C.’ L.61. Gregory Bateson had a theory that people are at risk of schizophrenic cognition
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