PowerPoint Notes�Project 2 Presentation

PowerPoint Notesâ��Project 2 Presentation - •...

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PowerPoint Notes—Project 2 Presentation Presentation 1 Introduction o Bidding on oil lease Assumptions o 4 Given Data o Signal, chart with leases and historical signals Errors o Actual mean, standard deviation, mean used in project (0) o Lease number, co 1 errors, co 2 errors Frequency distribution of Errors o Frequency distribution table Bins, bin, frequency, relative frequency, adj rel frequency, midpoints. ect o pdf errors Strategy 1 o Bid signal “winners curse” o Advantage o Disadvantage Strategy o Bid signal minus winners curse o Advanctad Strategy 3 o Bid signal minu Strategy 4 o All other companies adjust by WC+WB Advantage=all companies are adjusting bids by same amount Disadvantage=our company is free to figure out own adjustment Second Slide on 4 Strategy 5 o Adjust all other companies by WC Strategy 6 o Nash Equilibrium Average of 3 trials Another slide on 6 3 rd slide on 6 o advantage and disadvantage on each Conclusion o Strategy 6 is the best
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Presentation 2 Overview Objectives
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Unformatted text preview: • Variables • Assumptions o All geologists are experts o 4 adjustments total • Second Assumptions slide • Given Data • Errors o Represents the difference between each individual companies signal and the… • Given Data (again?) o Mean, Standard Dev, • Frequency Distribution • Pdf errors • Strategy 1 o Bid the signal o Advantage=quick answer, Disdabantage, almost always negative profit • 2 o Bid the signal, winners curse o Winners curse in real terms…winners usually tend to overpay…winners curse usually has bid that’s too high o On average, expect 0 profit • 3 o signal-wc-wb o excpect profit to be = to winners blessing • Disadvantage of 2 & 3 (and advantage) • 4 o advantage, the best value of success is the best value of an adjustment • 5 o advantage=observe changes without any errors o disadvantage=only adjusts by winners curse • 6 Presentation 3 • Company Goals • Objectives • Same same same...
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PowerPoint Notesâ��Project 2 Presentation - •...

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