Copy of __________Lecture 11.1.2010 JGMjlm

Copy of __________Lecture 11.1.2010 JGMjlm - 9,800 9,300...

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Period Sales Dec. 31, 1998 1 7,175 Dec. 31, 1999 2 8,638 Dec. 31, 2000 3 7,331 Dec. 31, 2001 4 7,634 Dec. 31, 2002 5 7,933 Dec. 31, 2003 6 7,663 Dec. 31, 2004 7 8,421 Dec. 31, 2005 8 8,333 Dec. 31, 2006 9 7,028 Dec. 31, 2007 10 8,009 Dec. 31, 2008 11 8,935 Linear 12 8,314 Standard deviation of the MA(2) 12 8,472 historical sales amounts MA(3) 12 7,990 S 618.077 WMA(2) 12 8,720 WMA(3) 12 7,837 ES(2) 12 8,134 Average 12 8,245 Avg + 2S max 12 9,481 Avg - 2S min 12 7,008 Linear Model Forecast Period Sales Dec. 31, 1998 1 7,175 Dec. 31, 1999 2 8,638 Dec. 31, 2000 3 7,331 Dec. 31, 2001 4 7,634 Dec. 31, 2002 5 7,933 Dec. 31, 2003 6 7,663 Dec. 31, 2004 7 8,421 Dec. 31, 2005 8 8,333 Dec. 31, 2006 9 7,028 Dec. 31, 2007 10 8,009 Dec. 31, 2008 11 8,935 Forecast 12 8,314 linear model forecast Period Sales Dec. 31, 1998 1 7,175 Dec. 31, 1999 2 8,638 Dec. 31, 2000 3 7,331 Dec. 31, 2001 4 7,634 Dec. 31, 2002 5 7,933 Dec. 31, 2003 6 7,663 Year Ended Year Ended Year Ended 8,0 9,00 10,00
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Dec. 31, 2004 7 8,421 Dec. 31, 2005 8 8,333 Dec. 31, 2006 9 7,028 Dec. 31, 2007 10 8,009 Dec. 31, 2008 11 8,935 MA(2) 12 8,472 MA(3) 12 7,990 Weighted Moving Average Period Sales WMA(2) WMA(3) Dec. 31, 1998 1 7,175 23% 44% Dec. 31, 1999 2 8,638 77% Errors 28% Dec. 31, 2000 3 7,331 8,299 968 28% Errors Dec. 31, 2001 4 7,634 7,634 0 7,634 0 Dec. 31, 2002
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Copy of __________Lecture 11.1.2010 JGMjlm - 9,800 9,300...

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