TEST TWO OUTLINES - 5NaturalHazards 1....

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5 - Natural Hazards 09/27/07 1. Hazards are predictable from scientific evaluation  Earthquakes, eruptions, floods landslides Identification and study, mapping and monitoring 2. Risk analysis is important to understand the impact of natural hazards Based on probability and consequences 3. Hazards are Linked One hazard can lead to another IE: Quakes   landslides, tsunamis Hurricanes   flooding, coastal erosion 4. Disasters are Turning to Catastrophes Disasters = damage Catastrophe = region cannot repair Size and frequency Population shifts, poor land use 5.  Consequences can be Minimized Understanding, land use, preparedness Natural Disasters Have Always Happened Disasters are when they intersect with population density and land use  patterns   urbanization, deforestation Geologists ID hazardous processes   awareness, alternatives
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Natural Hazards are Repetitive Historical & geological history o Gauging stations o Seismometers/tilt meter Prehistoric Events o Sedimentary layers Recognize landforms o Delta vs. floodplains  Magnitude vs. Frequency Larger event, less likely to occur Smaller event, more likely to occur Hazardous Events are Linked Hurricanes   flood, coastal erosion, landslide Shale: landslides Granite: Sliding on fractures Limestone: Sinkhole collapse Greatest Loss of Life   Highest Monetary Damage
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Deaths   tornadoes, lightening, floods Property   earthquakes, landslides, soils (clays) Catastrophe Damage takes years to recover from Require outside assistance High: flood, hurricane, tornado, quakes, wildfire Medium: landslide, drought Low: Coastal erosion, frost, lightening, soils  Disaster Prediction and Warring   Goal: Minimize loss of life and property damage Probability + consequence = possible risk   warning  Locations  o Global Scale   volcanoes, earthquakes o Regional Scale   areas affected o Local Scale   locate and ID dangers Probability of Occurrences o Probability within time span   averages Precursor Events o Creep before landslide
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o Buldge before volcanic eruption o Foreshocks before earthquakes Forecasting o Mississippi Flooding o Atlantic Hurricane o Tsunami Buoys Warning o Inform the public o Predictions can be wrong (Mammoth Lake, Bishop CA) Risk Risk determination Risk = Probability X Consequences Acceptable risk o Depends on society, individuals and situation (ie   Harry Truman,  1980) Problems and opportunities o Lack of reliable data   methods improving, publicity Human Responses REACTIVE o Impact
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