Lec18-Modeling - Introduction to infectious disease...

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1 Introduction to infectious disease modelling Jamie Lloyd-Smith Epi 220, Fall 2010 UCLA Why model? Some terminology Microparasite models (the SIR family) Modeling transmission R 0 Macroparasite models Outline Basic results from SIR models Elements of more advanced models Types of data that modelers can use Linking infectious diseases to virology, evolution, ecology, and beyond Convince you that models are useful and relevant. Teach enough that you can be an intelligent consumer of modeling studies. Lay groundwork for you to collaborate with modelers in future – or even do it yourself! Goals Why do we model infectious diseases? 1. Gain insight into mechanisms influencing disease spread, and link individual scale ‘clinical’ knowledge with population-scale patterns. 2. Focus thinking : model formulation forces clear statement of assumptions, hypotheses. 3. Derive new insights and hypotheses from mathematical analysis or simulation. 4 Establish relative importance of different processes and parameters Following Heesterbeek & Roberts (1995) 4. Establish of different processes and parameters, to focus research or management effort. 5. Thought experiments and “what if” questions, since real experiments are often logistically or ethically impossible. 6. Explore management options . Note the absence of prediction. Models are highly simplified representations of very complex systems, and parameter values are difficult to estimate. exact quantitative predictions are virtually impossible. Why do we model?
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