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1Introduction to infectious disease modellingJamie Lloyd-SmithEpi 220, Fall 2010UCLA•Why model?•Some terminology•Microparasite models (the SIR family)•Modeling transmission•R0•Macroparasite modelsOutline•Basic results from SIR models•Elements of more advanced models•Types of data that modelers can use•Linking infectious diseases to virology, evolution, ecology, and beyond•Convince you that models are useful and relevant.•Teach enough that you can be an intelligent consumer of modeling studies.•Lay groundwork for you to collaborate with modelers in future – or even do it yourself!GoalsWhy do we model infectious diseases?1.Gain insight into mechanismsinfluencing disease spread, and link individual scale ‘clinical’ knowledge with population-scale patterns.2.Focus thinking: model formulation forces clear statement of assumptions, hypotheses.3.Derive new insights and hypothesesfrom mathematical analysis or simulation.4Establishrelative importanceof different processes and parametersFollowing Heesterbeek & Roberts (1995)4.Establish of different processes and parameters, to focus research or management effort.5.Thought experimentsand “what if” questions, since real experiments are often logistically or ethically impossible.6.Explore management options.Note the absence of prediction.Models are highly simplified representations of very complex systems, and parameter values are difficult to estimate.exact quantitative predictions are virtually impossible.Why do we model?
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