Powerone09 - 1 Economics 240A Power One Outline Course...

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1 Economics 240A Power One
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2 Outline Course Organization Course Overview Resources for Studying
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I. Organization Lectures are on Tuesdays and Thursdays, 5:00-6:15 PM in North Hall 1105. Lecture Notes for class will cover the concepts Text: Gerald Keller, Statistics for Management and Economics, Eighth edition (2009) The Computer Lab is scheduled for Wednesdays, 400-4:50 & 5:00-5:50 in Miramar, Phelps 1526. The capacity of each Lab is 25 stations. Software: Excel and EViews Lab Notes will cover the procedures of analysis TA: Mathurin Some, Office, NH 2048 Section:, 240A W 6-7:50 Phelps 3505 Exams: Midterm Tuesday, Nov. 2` Final Thursday, December 9, 7:30-10:30 PM
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Problem Sets, Pre-Midterm: #1 Sept. 30, 2010 due Oct 7, 2010 #2 Oct 7, 2010 due Oct 14, 2010 #3 Oct 14, 2010 due Oct 21, 2010 #4 Oct 21, 2010 due Oct.28, 2010 Problem Set, Post-Midterm #5 Oct. 28, 2010 due Nov. 4, 2010 Exercises: as assigned on the Lab Notes Organization ( Cont.) Takehome Project: An exercise to test your quantitative and writing skills. You can work collectively but the 2-3 page report must be yours. Last Fall we also did group projects with PowerPoint presentations and I will probably repeat this format. Your grade for the course will be based on your scores on the midterm(18%), final(37%) and 2 projects(each 18%), and your effort as indicated by problem sets and lab exercises turned in for credit(9%). Of course the latter are more important than the weight indicated. I distribute the grades by letter, weighing the problem sets one third of a grade point, and by total score for the class, and reconcile the course grades.
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5 Three Branches of Statistics Descriptive Statistics Probability Inference
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6 Statistics: History & Development Factors affecting development Problems of interest E.g. early biology: persons, animals, plants Tools Pencil & paper: analytical solutions
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7
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Probability Descriptive Inference Non-Normal: John Tukey Normally Distributed Data Normal Dist. Parametric Estimation Non-Normal Non-parametric Statistics I II III Classical
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9 Example of Descriptive Statistics
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10 Example of Uncertainty Margin of sampling error Of three percent
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11 Example of inference McCain advertised on TV in California, was this a good use of his campaign funds? Recent Poll: Sept 22, 2008 McCain: 39% Obama: 55% California Field Poll: Sept 17, 2008 McCain: 36% Obama: 52% 830 likely voters Based on the poll, what is the probability that McCain will win California?
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12 Course Overview Topics in Statistics Descriptive Statistics Exploratory Data Analysis Probability and Distributions Proportions Interval Estimation Hypothesis Testing Correlation and Regression Analysis of Variance
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13 Concepts 1 Two types of data: Time series Cross section
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14 http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Index 1982-84 =100 1982-84=100
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15 http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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16 CPIAUCNS Jan 1921- Aug 2007
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17 Strike Day? Or Teach In
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