02_pop - The World Today: Nearly Seven Billion People...

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Unformatted text preview: The World Today: Nearly Seven Billion People Global Population today (9/2/2010): 6,866,224,273 Population More than 50% urban (in or near cities) 90% live north of the equator 90% live on 20% of the earth’s land 80% live at less than 500 m elevation 2/ live within 500 km of an ocean 3 Population Distribution Measuring Population Population Change Overpopulation 1 Nearly 7 Billion People: Distribution 3 2 Distribution by Latitude Source: http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/08/world_populatio.html Global Population: 4 Major Clusters Distribution by Longitude East Asia About 1.25 billion people 20% of humanity (More than 15% in China) About 2/3 rural South Asia About 1.25 billion people 20% of humanity (More than 15% in India) About ¾ rural Source: http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/08/world_populatio.html 4 5 Southeast Asia About ½ billion people 8% of humanity Mostly rural Europe About 2/3 billion people 11% of humanity About ¾ urban 6 1 The “Ecumene” Other Clusters? Egypt & West Africa? Eastern North America? US West Coast & Highland Mexico? Urban South America & the Caribbean? East African Highlands? The “ecumene” is the inhabited area of the earth. Today, the only areas that aren’t inhabited are those that are too hot, dry, cold or at high elevations. 7 8 Different Density Measures Population Density Remember, density is a measure of “how many per.” The question is – what are we interested in finding out? Different density measures give us different insights, such as: Level of development Type of economy Clues about population growth, health, status of women, etc. 9 ARITHMETIC DENSITY (“average density”) (total population)/(total land area) US population = ~300,000,000 US land area = 9,161,923 km2 (300,000,000)/(9,161,923) = ~32.6 PHYSIOLOGIC DENSITY (“farmland density”) (total population)/(total arable land area) US population = ~300,000,000 US arable land = ~1,650,000 km2 (300,000,000)/(1,650,000) = ~181.8 AGRICULTURAL DENSITY (“farmer density”) (total number of farmers)/(total arable land area) US farmers = ~2,100,000 US arable land = ~1,650,000 km2 (2,100,000)/(1,650,000) = ~1.27 (data on population, farmers and farmland from the CIA “World Factbook”: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html and the USDA Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/StateFacts/US.HTM#FC ) Density: Comparisons Density: Comparison Table Arithmetic Density Physiological Density BNG Physiologic Agricultural % Farmers % Arable 3 71 2 3 9 USA 31 172 2 1 19 EGY 75 2,580 826 32 2 247 1,069 16 2 BNG NTH NTH JPN Arithmetic CAN 10 JPN IND IND UK UK EGY EGY USA USA 25 CAN CAN UK 0 200 400 600 800 0 1,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 BNG JPN 338 2,907 145 5 IND 350 699 419 60 56 NTH 11 NTH 400 1,798 72 4 27 BNG 1,050 1,838 1,158 63 67 JPN IND Agricultural Density UK EGY USA CAN 11 0 500 1,000 1,500 12 2 Arithmetic Density Physiologic Density 13 Basic Population Measures: Birth, Death & Natural Increase 14 Crude Birth Rates Crude Birth Rate CBR = (births per year)/(total population) Crude Death Rate CDR = (deaths per year)/(total population) Rate of Natural Increase CBR – CDR = NI Note: The CBR & CDR are usually expressed in per thousand, while NI is usually expressed in percent. 15 Crude Death Rates 16 The Russian Problem 17 Source: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21531240-401,00.html 18 3 Population Rates: Two Examples Rates of Natural Increase Mexico 2004 (July est., CIA World Factbook) Population: 104,959,594 Births: 2,250,334 Deaths: 496,459 CBR = 2,250,334/104,959,594 = 21.44/1,000 CDR = 496,459/104,959,594 = 4.73/1,000 NI = 21.44 – 4.73 = 16.71/1,000 = 1.67% US 2004 (July est., CIA World Factbook) Population: 293,027,571 Births: 4,190,294 Deaths: 2,443,850 Note that Mexico’s growth rate is more than 3 times the US rate CBR = 4,190,294/293,027,571 = 14.13/1,000 CDR = 2,443,850/293,027,571 = 8.34/1,000 NI = 14.13 – 8.34 = 5.8/1,000 = 0.58% 19 20 Doubling Time: Interest Doubling Time (years) $100.00 $110.00 $120.00 $130.00 $140.00 $150.00 $160.00 $170.00 Simple + $10.00 + $10.00 + $10.00 + $10.00 + $10.00 + $10.00 + $10.00 + $10.00 = = = = = = = = $110.00 $120.00 $130.00 $140.00 $150.00 $160.00 $170.00 $180.00 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Compound $100.00 + $10.00 = $110.00 + $11.00 = $121.00 + $12.10 = $133.10 + $13.31 = $146.41 + $14.64 = $161.05 + $16.10 = $177.15 + $17.72 = $194.87 + $19.49 = 10.0 $110.00 $121.00 $133.10 $146.41 $161.05 $177.15 $194.87 $214.36 5.0 Increase (%) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Population Doubling Times Simple vs. Compound Interest Initial amount: $100 Interest: 10% 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.5 At 10% compound interest, the initial amount doubles in less than 8 years. 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 21 World Population Growth 22 Other Population Measures Total Fertility Rate (TFR) An estimate of how many children a woman will have during her childbearing years. Assumes women in the future will act exactly as women today do. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) Deaths of infants less than 1 year old, divided by total births per year. (total infant deaths)/(total births) The rate of natural increase declined between 1950 and 2000 – but the number of people added to the world’s population each year has remained fairly steady for about 40 years. Why? Because global population increased from 2.5 billion to over 6 billion during this time period! Life Expectancy An estimate of the number of years a child born today can expect to live at current mortality levels. 23 24 4 Total Fertility Rate Infant Mortality Rate 25 Infant Mortality Figures, 2010 est. 26 Life Expectancy The Five Worst: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Angola Afghanistan Liberia Niger Mali 180.21 153.14 138.24 116.66 115.86 The Five Best: 220. Hong Kong 221. Japan 222. Sweden 223. Bermuda 224. Singapore 2.92 2.79 2.75 2.46 2.31 Figures are infant deaths per 1,000 live births. The US ranks 180, at 6.22/1,000 Data source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2091rank.html 27 The Demographic Transition 28 The Demographic Transition Q: Why do the US and Mexico have different rates of natural increase and different fertility rates? Why do these rates change? A: The Demographic Transition The demographic transition is a model of how birth and death rates change Birth and death rates change because of Changes in the economic system Changes in information about health and health care Changes in people’s attitudes about family size 29 30 5 US Pyramids: 1950-2000 Population Pyramids One way of visualizing how a country is changing (and how it may change in the future) is by using a population pyramid, a kind of bar chart that shows the age and sex structure of the population. 31 Source: http://www.prb.org/ 32 In China… Sex Ratios (males per hundred females) 10 Highest 189 174 133 124 113 112 111 110 109 109 Qatar UAE Bahrain Saudi Arabia Oman China Guam Brunei Samoa Kuwait 10 Lowest Global average: 101 males per 100 females 83 Latvia 87 Ukraine 87 Cape Verde 88 Russia 89 Belarus 89 Estonia 89 Lithuania 92 Georgia 92 Hungary 92 Moldova Data Source: http://www.popin.org/6billion/t23.htm (1999) 33 34 Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1019/p09s02-coop.htm …and in India Overpopulation? Mean Density (km2) BNG 910 NTH 432 336 JPN IND 313 241 UK EGY 70 USA 30 CAN 3 0 Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6373043.stm 35 200 400 600 800 1,000 The only rational way to define over-population is to say that if the population is too great for the local environment to support it, a place is overpopulated. Any other definition is based on cultural values – basically, what you approve of! 36 6 Thomas Malthus Density Comparison Thomas Malthus (1766-1834), British clergyman and economist. Published An Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798. Crucial insight: Population tends to grow faster than the food supply. Population growth can be stopped: FAMINE “MORAL RESTRAINT” Was Malthus right? For animal populations – yes. For people – not so far! “Neomalthusians” vs. “cornucopians” 37 38 39 Source: http://www.boingboing.net/2009/01/30/charts-3.html 40 Malthus: Theory vs. Reality Declining Birth Rates Reducing Natural Increase The rate of natural increase can only decline if either birth rates decline or death rates increase. Of the two, most normal people prefer the first – but even this approach is controversial! Reducing birth rates: Economic development Contraception 41 42 7 The Epidemiologic Transition Stage 1: The Black Death At different stages of development there are different processes that affect the death rate. Different countries have different levels of technological development – and different health problems. Stage 1: Pestilence & famine (“Black Plague”) Stage 2: Receding pandemics (“Cholera”) Stage 3: Degenerative & human-caused diseases (“heart attack & cancer”) Stage 4: Delayed degenerative diseases (“cardiovascular disease & oncology”) Stage 5: Reemergence of infectious & parasitic diseases (“AIDS,” “SARS,” “TB,” “Ebola,” “Bird Flu,” etc.) Source: http://historymedren.about.com/library/atlas/natmapbd2.htm 43 Stage 2: Snow’s 1854 Cholera Map 44 Stages 3 & 4: Cancer Mortality: 1950-1994 Source: http://dceg.cancer.gov/cgi-bin/atlas/avail-maps?site=acc Source: http://www.llnl.gov/str/September02/Hall.html 45 46 Population Growth: China vs. India Stage 5: AIDS 2050 2025 2000 47 48 8 ...
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This note was uploaded on 12/16/2010 for the course GEOG 102 taught by Professor Osborn during the Fall '10 term at San Diego State.

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