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673885c70fc27a8dcb5301a10268480cf32934dd.xls newsboy discrete Newspaper Problem Cumulati Demand Probability Cost per paper $0.35 1% 20 1% Retail price $0.45 3% 21 2% Return credit $0.05 6% 22 3% 10% 23 4% Stock Level #NAME? 15% 24 5% 21% 25 6% Demand #NAME? 27% 26 6% 34% 27 7% Sales #NAME? 41% 28 7% Left Over #NAME? 48% 29 7% 55% 30 7% Revenue #NAME? 62% 31 7% Cost #NAME? 69% 32 7% Return credit #NAME? 75% 33 6% Profit #NAME? 80% 34 5% 84% 35 4% 88% 36 4% overage cost $0.30 91% 37 3% underage cost $0.10 94% 38 3% critical ratio 0.25 97% 39 3% optimal order Qunat 25 100% 40 3% 100% Expected Value 29.99 Farid Ali Note that expected newspape Farid Alizadeh: The optimal number of newspapers ordered is obtained by looking up at the cumulative distribution column A B C D E F G H I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
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673885c70fc27a8dcb5301a10268480cf32934dd.xls newsboy discrete newspape number o by the new the cumulative distribution column and finding the number closest to critical ratio. It seems that 25 or 26 are the right answers. It turns out that 25 is correct. A B C D E F G H I 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
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673885c70fc27a8dcb5301a10268480cf32934dd.xls newsboy discrete Possible Stock Levels 20 25 30 35 40 izadeh: t even though the value of demand for ers is 30, the optimal J K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
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673885c70fc27a8dcb5301a10268480cf32934dd.xls newsboy discrete ers is 30, the optimal of newspapers ordered wsboy is only 25 J K 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
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YASAI Simulation Output Workbook simulaton3doorNewsboy.xls YASAI Version: 2 Sheet newsboy discrete Use Same Seed? Yes Start Date 11/19/2008 Random Number Seed: 48971.31 Start Time 1:36:11 PM Run Time (h:mm:ss) 0:00:02 Scenarios: 5 Sample Size: 1000 Parameter Scenario Stock Level 1 20 2 25 3 30 4 35 5 40 Output Name Scenario Observations Mean Profit 1 1000 2.000 0.000 Profit 2 1000 2.352 0.386 Profit 3 1000 2.140 1.110 Profit 4 1000 1.259 1.719 Profit 5 1000 -0.056 2.005 optimal profit 2.352 optimal Scenario 2 optimal number 25 Standard Deviation Farid Aliz The numbe simulation number ob by using cr method.
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Minimum 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 0.500 1.300 1.700 2.100 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 -1.000 -0.200 0.200 0.600
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