# ex3ab03 - Exam 3AB 2003 CPS questions(1-8 1-3 We wish to...

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Exam 3AB 2003 CPS questions (1-8) 1-3) We wish to test the model that the probability of the ball landing on a red cell in a roulette wheel is ½. For the following possible data, which consequences (A, B, C) apply? (MTF) A) The data refute P = ½ B) The data are irrelevant to P = ½ C) The data support P = ½ 1) (2 pts) Data: 20 spins, all Red A B C 2) (2pts) Data: Payoff percentage at a slot machine A B C 3) (2pts) Data: 1000 spins, 523 Red A B C 4) (5 pts) We considered the correlation that red cars have higher accident rates (color is variable X, accident rate is variable Y). Which of the following causal models of this correlation use a “third variable” to explain the correlation? (That is, for which models are X and Y not connected by a causal chain?) MTF Causal model Cause Third variable? accident-prone drivers prefer red Fill in (A) if a 3 rd variable is invoked people become more aggressive when driving red Fill in (B) if a 3 rd variable is invoked more dangerous cars tend to be painted red Fill in (C) if a 3 rd variable is invoked red is harder to see, so a red car is more likely to be hit by other drivers Fill in (D) if a 3 rd variable is invoked 5) (5pts) Again consider the reason why red cars have higher accident rates (a correlation). If “type of car” (not color) is the true cause of accident rates, which accident rate levels are expected in cells 1 & 2 of the following table? (one only) Car color, accident rate red high (1)

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other (2) low sports “safe” type of car A) 1 is high, 2 is high C) 1 is low, 2 is high B) 1 is high, 2 is low D) 1 is low, 2 is low 6) (5 pts) Which of the following options would be experiments, from the lecture on autism and Facilitated Communication (and the lecture that followed)? These were some of the different ways we might try to find out if the words being typed were from the facilitator. The question is merely which are experiments, not which would be effective . MTF A) Watch closely and look for evidence that the Facilitator is controlling the typing. B) Change the positions of the letters on the keyboard and see if the words change. C) Show the child but not the Facilitator something and ask for a description of it. D) Monitor brain waves of child and Facilitator to determine who is responding. 7) (5pts) The test of FC shown in the video was an experiment because (one only) A) it included controls C) it manipulated the normal FC environment B) it included replication D) all of the above (A-C) 8) (4pts) If a lab says that the DNA type of a crime scene sample matches the DNA type of a suspect, what does it mean if the random match probability (RMP) is 1/billion but the lab error rate is 1%? In other words, how should a jury deal with those two numbers in assessing the significance of a match. (one only) A) The significance calculation is not affected. B) The proper calculation is 1/billion x probability that no error was made (0.99)

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ex3ab03 - Exam 3AB 2003 CPS questions(1-8 1-3 We wish to...

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