ex3ab04 - Language of evaluation 1-3) (3 pts each) We wish...

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Language of evaluation 1-3) (3 pts each) We wish to test the model that the incidence of gonorrhea declines after beer taxes are raised . For the following possible data, which consequences (A, B, C) apply? Note that this question is not about causation versus correlation, only about data and a model that happens to describe a correlation. (MTF) A) The data are inconsistent with the model B) The data are irrelevant to the model C) The data support the model 1) Data: 20 spins on a roulette wheel, 15 are Red A B C 2) Data: In two separate instances, the incidence of hepatitis B infections was unchanged after beer taxes were raised. (Hepatitis B is not gonorrhea.) A B C 3) Data: In two separate instances, the incidence of gonorrhea was unchanged after beer taxes were raised. A B C 4) ( 12 pts ) The following points pertain to the book and lecture on evaluation. Which statements are true? (MTF). (A) Data are considered inconsistent with models because all models are false. (B) Classifying data as irrelevant to a model means that the data could not possibly refute it no matter how they turned out. (C) Classifying data as irrelevant to a model means that the data were not gathered according to the Ideal Data template. (D) In considering guilt versus innocence of a suspect in a crime, the law specifies that we adopt the view that the suspect is considered innocent until proven guilty (consider this statement true). The model of innocence is an example of a null model because it is the model we accept until evidence forces us to reject it. (E) In science and in many aspects of society, our willingness to reject a null model increases as evidence accumulates against that model. For example, in class, our acceptance of the safety of a vaccine (against the null model that the vaccine was not safe) increased as the sample of successful trials increased. (F) In a Pepsi versus Coca-Cola taste test, one would use either null model that Pepsi tastes best or that Coca- Cola tastes best. (G) By definition, once a model has been accepted, that model cannot be refuted in further tests. (H) The criteria for acceptance of a model are rigid in science and society, and there is little legitimate room for disagreement as to whether a model should be accepted or not. (I) A null model is part of every properly designed study. If the study does not have a null model, then it is not properly designed.
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Correlations 5) (6 pts) We considered the correlation that people living in cities/towns with high fluoride in the water supply have low tooth decay rates compared to people living in towns with low fluoride (fluoride level is variable X, tooth decay rate is variable Y). Which of the following causal models of this correlation use a “third variable” to explain the correlation (meaning that X and Y are not causally related)? MTF Causal model
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This note was uploaded on 12/20/2010 for the course BIO 301D taught by Professor Bull during the Spring '08 term at University of Texas at Austin.

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ex3ab04 - Language of evaluation 1-3) (3 pts each) We wish...

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