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ex4ab07 - 1(4 pts Key code ID and name Fill in(A B to...

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1. (4 pts) Key code, ID #, and name . Fill in (A B) to indicate your key for this version of the exam. Be sure your name and ID number are correctly bubbled in on the scantron and that you have signed this exam copy. See the page displayed on the big screen for details of where your ID number goes. Intrinsic Difficulties 2. (5 pts) Which of the following are true? MTF A) The coin flip demo during the intrinsic difficulties lecture was used to illustrate how rare events could be generated merely through sampling error. B) The flash powder demonstration illustrated that a fundamentally different outcome could come from the combination of two things than from either alone; this was a type of interaction or complexity. C) Intrinsic difficulties’ refers to types of problems for which the scientific method cannot ultimately obtain answers, hence we need to find some other way of addressing those problems. D) The theme given that unites intrinsic difficulties is that they all stem from problems in evaluation (as opposed to data, models, or revision). E) We noted that intrinsic difficulties are expected to become less important in the future, as societies develop a better understanding of the scientific method. 3-7. (3pts each) In the following problem descriptions, which intrinsic difficulties are indicated? Do not infer more than is described. The underlined part of the question illustrates the problem that needs to be addressed by your answer. Use the following options for your answers: (one per question) (A) Time lags (B) Rare events (C) Humans make difficult subjects (D) Interactions/ complexity (E) None 3. The drug DES was used in the 1940s into the 1970s to suppress miscarriage. It was discovered that the drug caused elevated cancer rates. Which intrinsic difficulty explains why the drug was used for 30+ years before it was withdrawn ? (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) one only 4. The FDA has recently approved several drugs that were subsequently withdrawn because they created problems for some patients (e.g., Baycol and Vioxx). The clinical trials had missed those problems because they arose in 1 of every 10,000 patients. Clinical trials only use up to 3,000 patients. Which difficulty explains why the drug passed clinical trials yet was eventually found to cause problems? (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) one only 5. The FAA, which oversees airline safety, has recently instituted a model of accidents (crashes) that uses data on near misses. Near misses are perhaps a poor model of crashes, but they are much more frequent than actual crashes. Airline safety has gotten to the point that there are not enough crashes to obtain adequate data on their causes. What difficulty explains why the FAA has resorted to this alternative model of crashes ? (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) one only
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6. Superconductors are materials (metals) that have almost no resistance to electricity. Superconducting materials were long sought but only created maybe two decades ago. They consist of combinations of odd metals, and none of the metals alone have superconducting materials so there was no way to predict how to make them. What difficulty underlies the long time it took to discover how to make superconductors
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