DDI09-GT-CTBT

DDI09-GT-CTBT - The Zack Elias Experience CTBT 2.0 Lugar...

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The Zack Elias Experience CTBT 2.0 Dartmouth 2K9 1 Lugar and the CTBT Last printed 0/0/0000 0:00:00 AM 1
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The Zack Elias Experience CTBT 2.0 Dartmouth 2K9 2 CTBT 1NC A. CTBT will pass now but Lugar decides whether Obama gets the Republican votes he needs to pass it. Lugar’s opposition to Obama would kill ratification Jofi Joseph , a senior Democratic foreign policy staffer in the United States Senate, Washington Quarterly, CSIS, April, 200 9 “Renew the drive for CTBT Ratification” http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Joseph.pdf What are the likely prospects if the Senate was to hold another vote on CTBT ratification during the Obama administration ? We can start from the proposition that all 59 Senate Democrats will vote to ratify the CTBT because 1) they believe in the merits of a global nuclear test ban, and 2) they will want to support their president .14 As a result, nine Republican yes votes would be needed to ensure the 67 votes necessary to secure ratification under the constitution. The key player on the Republican side will be the ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Richard B. Lugar (R-IN). In 1999, he voted against CTBT ratification. Given the close relationship, however, that he has forged with both Obama and Vice President Joe Biden and the strong legacy he has sought to build on internationalist leadership on U.S. foreign policy, Lugar can be expected to give a fair hearing to administration arguments in favor of CTBT ratification. Should he choose to reverse his previous vote on CTBT ratification, he may provide political cover to bring along other Republican votes to secure ratification. B. Plan would make Lugar oppose Obama – he’d hate the plan (insert evidence) C. US ratification is key to preventing proliferation Jofi Joseph , a senior Democratic foreign policy staffer in the United States Senate, Washington Quarterly, CSIS, April , 2009 “Renew the drive for CTBT Ratification” http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Joseph.pdf As Obama himself recognizes, the road to a world free of nuclear weapons must include the entry into force of the nuclear test ban treaty. A global ban on nuclear weapons tests is an essential step to halting the entry of new states into the nuclear club: without the ability to demonstrate its mastery of nuclear weapons by detonating one, no proliferator can lay claim to a credible nuclear arsenal. Likewise, a test ban promises to halt destabilizing nuclear arms races between existing weapons states by ceasing the development and deployment of new types of nuclear weapons. Without the option of tests to verify their effectiveness and reliability, a nuclear power will be hard pressed to introduce new advanced weapons into their deterrent. Instead, an effective nuclear test ban will more or less freeze existing nuclear arsenals at their current levels and prevent future improvements to their explosive power or miniaturization of warheads for missile deployment. For that
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This note was uploaded on 12/20/2010 for the course K 101 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '10 term at UMass Lowell.

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DDI09-GT-CTBT - The Zack Elias Experience CTBT 2.0 Lugar...

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