Global Aging - World Population Growth Rate 1950-2050 2.5 Gr owt h r at e(per cent Per 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 2010

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Unformatted text preview: World Population Growth Rate: 1950-2050 2.5 Gr owt h r at e (per cent ) Per 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base 10-2002. Birth Dearth Coming? Number of children per woman from peak year to present 8 Replacement rate 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ex ic ou o th A fr S ic ou a th Ko re a Ch in a Eu ro pe T un is ia Eg yp t an Br az il a In di M S Peak Year 2000-05 Source: U.N. Population Division Cu b Ir a Total Fertility Rate: 1960­1965 and Total Fertility Rate: 1960­1965 and 2000­2005 Averages 1960-1965 4 3.3 3 2.04 2 1.66 2.8 2.9 2.5 1.87 1.51 2 1.33 1.32 1.28 2.5 3.6 2000-2005 1 0 US UK France Canada Japan Germany Italy Life Expectancy at Birth 1950­1955 Life Expectancy at Birth 1950­1955 and 2000­2005 Averages 1950-1955 85 80 76.5 75 70 68.9 65 60 69.2 67.5 66.5 66 63.9 69.1 77.2 77.3 78.1 78.2 78.5 80.5 2000-2005 US UK German Franc y e Italy Canad a Japan Life Expectancy at Age 65 in 1970 and Life Expectancy at Age 65 in 1970 and 2003 1970 25 20 15 10 5 0 France Germany Italy UK Japan United States 15.0 13.5 19.0 20.5 18.0 15.0 18.0 17.5 14.0 14.0 18.0 15.0 2003 Average Retirement Age of Men in Average Retirement Age of Men in 1960 and 1995 68 66 64.5 Year: 1960 Year:1995 66.2 66.2 66.5 67.2 66.5 65.2 64.5 63.6 62.3 60.5 60.6 62.7 64 62 60 58 56 France Germany Italy France Germany Canada UK 59.2 US Japan Labor­Force Participation Rate of Older Labor­Force Participation Rate of Older Men, by Age Group in 2000 Age 60-64 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 73% 55% 34% 18% 8% 9% 50% 46% 31% 6% 31% 16% 5% 2% Age 65 & Over Ca na da Ja pa n US UK an y G er m Fr an ce Ita ly Employed Adults as Percent of All Adults Employed Adults as Percent of All Adults Aged 15­64 in 2000, Total and by Sex Total 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% C an ad a an y Fr an ce Ja pa n U K Ita ly er m U S 75% 68% 54% 40% 68% 61% 66% 58% 81% 69% 81% 79% 76% 74% 72% 71% 68% 66% 66% 57% Men Women 54% G Median Age of Population Median Age of Population Country 1950 2005 2050 China 23.9 32.5 45.0 Czech Republic 32.7 38.9 51.1 Germany 27.3 42.1 49.4 India 21.3 26.5 41.1 Iraq 20.1 18.9 31.1 Japan 22.3 42.9 54.9 Kenya 20.0 18.1 27.0 Uganda 18.2 15.3 23.3 U.S. 30.0 36.0 41.1 Percent Change in Working­Age Population Percent Change in Working­Age Population (Aged 15­64) from 2000 to 2050: UN Projection 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% US Canada UK -6% -20% -33% -34% 31% 20% 6% France Germany Italy Japan Ratio of Contributions to Retired Beneficiaries in Ratio of Contributions to Retired Beneficiaries in Public Pension Systems: 1995 and IMF Projection for 2050 year:1995 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2.3 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 4.2 3.6 year:2050 US UK Canada Japan France Germany Italy Spending on Public Pensions, as Percent Spending on Public Pensions, as Percent of GDP: 2000 and Projection for 2050 Year:2000 20% 16% 13.0% Year:2050 18.0% 13.8% 11.8% 12.1% 18.6% 19.4% 17.5% 12% 8% 4% 0% C an ad a 7.4% 5.5% 4.9% 4.6% 5.1% 7.9% an y G er m Fr an ce Ja pa n U K U S Ita ly Percent of Population Aged 65 & Over Percent of Population Aged 65 & Over in 2050: U.N. Projection 40.00% 30.00% 21.10% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% US UK Ca na da Fr an ce er m 35.90% 36.40% 24.30% 26.70% 27.30% 31.00% G Ja pa n Ita ly an y Funded Pensions Assets in 2000 by Funded Pensions Assets in 2000 by Country, as a Percent of World Total the rest, 13% F, G & I, 2% Canada, 3% UK, 11% US, 59% Japan, 12% Public Debt/GDP (2005) Public Debt/GDP (2005) UK US France Germany Canada Italy Japan 43.1% 64.7% 66.2% 67.3% 69.6% 109% 158% Who Is Deepest in the Hole? Labor Supply and Taxes: 1970­74 & 1993­96 (work by Ed Prescott, Nobel Prize, Economics, 2004) τ Tax rate Country Germany France Italy Canada U.K. Japan U.S. Hours of Labor per Week per Adult 1970­74 24.6 24.4 19.2 22.2 25.9 29.8 23.5 1993­96 19.3 17.5 16.5 22.9 22.8 27.0 25.9 1970­74 0.52 0.49 0.41 0.44 0.45 0.25 0.40 1993­96 0.59 0.59 0.64 0.52 0.44 0.37 0.40 Europe Lacks Entrepreneurial Culture Europe Lacks Entrepreneurial Culture Edmund S. Phelps, Nobel Prize, Economics, 2006: “The economic systems on the Continent are not well structured for high performance…. The root problem is a dearth of economic dynamism.” Compared to the U.S., Canada and U.K., Europeans do not want challenging jobs or responsibility. The concern is about protecting what exists (entitlements). European companies and economies lack “dynamism” and resist entrepreneurial activity. Europe Withering Away? Europe Withering Away? Esko Aho, former Prime Minister of Finland, in a report to the European Commission in 2006: Europe is "living a moderately comfortable life on slowly declining capital. This society, averse to risk and reluctant to change, is in itself alarming, but it is also unsustainable in the face of rising competition from other parts of the world.” While in China… While in China… “China has become a nation of opportunity seekers, trusting that any problem can be solved along the way. The competitive advantage of today’s China, as a nation and as a people, is the willingness to adapt to what is necessary and beneficial.” John Naisbitt, Global Trends Forecaster Next Door in Russia Next Door in Russia Population 145,000,000 Population is falling; low birth rate; life expectancy is falling (disease, alcoholism); aging population Without in migration, population could fall to 80,000,000 within 30 years and lower after that. Russia leased 1 million hectares of forest land in Siberia to China in 2006 in “Joint Venture” Meng Dani lives here: “There is so much land, and so little Meng Dani lives here: “There is so much land, and so little of it is used.” In her hometown in Hailar, Inner Mongolia, “little land, a lot of people, and no work.” Share of World GDP 51% 2000 2050 47% 25% 19% Industrialized West Industrializing Countries 82% Share of World Stock Market Capitalization 2000 2050 45% 28% 5% Industrialized West Industrializing Countries ...
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This note was uploaded on 12/21/2010 for the course BUSA 5336 taught by Professor Jeff during the Summer '09 term at UT Arlington.

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