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OPMA 5364 Part 7a key

# OPMA 5364 Part 7a key - -= =17.83 =20.33 =14 =7 =10.67...

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Part 7a Part 7a PERT Analysis PERT Analysis

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a d g h e f c b PERT Example Activity Immediate Predecessor Optimistic Duration Most Likely Pessimistic Duration Expected Duration t e V t Variance a -- 15 18 20 b -- 20 20 22 c -- 12 14 16 d a 7 7 7 e b 8 11 12 f c 17 21 24 g b,d 10 12 15 h e,f 9 10 11 Critical path: Expected project duration T = Standard deviation of critical path σ cp = Prob(X > 48)? Prob(X < 43)? Prob(43 < X < 48)? Predict a completion date that you’re 80% sure you can meet. 17.83 20.33 14 7 10.67 20.83 12.17 10 6 t 4t t t p m o e + + = 2 o p t 6 t t V
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Unformatted text preview: -= =17.83 =20.33 =14 =7 =10.67 =20.83 =12.17 =10 .444 1.361 .111 c f h 14 + 20.83 + 10 = 44.83 1.384 1.916 .111 1.361 .444 = = + + 2.290 1.384 44.83 48 σ T X Z =-=-= prob=0.989 1-.989=0.011 1.322 1.384 43 44.83 σ X-T Z =-= = prob=0.907 1-.907=0.093 1 - 0.011 - 0.093 = 0.896 Z = 0.84 Z = (X – T) / σ 0.84 = (X – 44.83) / 1.384 X = 45.99 or 46...
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