Risk%20Safety%20Liability2010C0

Risk%20Safety%20Liability2010C0 - Risk, Safety and...

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Risk, Safety and Liability ENGR 482 Ethics and Engineering
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An Engineering Responsibility o Codes of ethics require the engineer to prevent exposure of the public to unacceptable risks .
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Some examples from National Society of Professional Engineers Code o “Hold paramount the safety, health and welfare of the public” o Design to “accepted engineering standards” o In “circumstances where the safety, health, property or welfare of the public are endangered” engineers must “notify their employer or client and such other authority as may be appropriate”
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o Do not “complete, sign, or seal plans and/or specifications that are not by design safe to the public health and welfare”
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Understanding and Managing Risks o What is risk? o How do we design engineering systems to reduce risks? o How do we operate engineering systems to reduce risks? o What are acceptable risks?
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Understanding and Managing Risks o Was there “risk” in coming to class today? o How did you decide the “risk” was acceptable? [You can decide later if the lecture was worth the risk!]
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What is risk? o One definition of “risk” is: o “Exposure to the chance of injury or loss; a hazardous or dangerous chance” * o This definition involves both: o the probability of an event occurring o the consequences of the event o Note: Risk ~ [Safety] -1 * Webster’s Dictionary
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An Engineering Definition of Risk: R i s k = × ( p r o b a b i l i t y o f e v e n t ) ( c o n s e q u e n c e s ) 1 n i i i R p c = =
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A) Probability of deadly car accident P 1 = 0.000001 What is your life “worth”? C 1 = $10,000,000 therefore: R 1 = 10 B) What is the risk of whiplash? P 2 = 0.001 C 2 = $10,000 therefore: R 2 = 10 Note: R 1 = R 2 Example: Comparative “Risk”
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Engineering Risk Assessment o Bridge foundation depths are often governed by the depth of scour, which is related to the size of the flood, defined in terms of its probability. o A 100-year flood is a flood which has a 0.01 chance of occurring in any given year. o A 500-year flood is a flood which has a 0.002 chance of occurring in any given year. R i s k = × ( p r o b a b i l i t y o f f a i l u r e ) ( c o n s e q u e n c e s )
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Engineering risk assessment. .. o Consider a bridge footing designed to have a 0.002 annual probability of being undercut by scour in any given year. o If collapse occurs during a rush hour (1/24 probability), 10 lives will likely be lost. If collapse occurs during non rush hours (23/24 probability) 1 life will likely be lost. One way to measure this risk is… o (2 × 10 -3 )(1/24)(10) = 833 × 10 -6 (risk of death) o (2 × 10 -3 )(23/24)(1) =1917 × 10 -6 (risk of death) o Total risk is 833 × 10 -6 + 1917 × 10 -6 =2750 × 10 -6 (risk of death)
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Probability of failure o Suppose a nuclear reactor will fail (by meltdown) if the control rods fail and the cooling pump fails. What is the probability of this occurring?
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Event tree analysis of failure probability—a tool in risk quantification and assessment (Assumes P 1  and P 2  are independent)
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This note was uploaded on 01/03/2011 for the course ENGR 482 taught by Professor Russell during the Fall '08 term at Texas A&M.

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Risk%20Safety%20Liability2010C0 - Risk, Safety and...

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