ec41lecture3b

# ec41lecture3b - Statistics for Economists Lecture 3 Kata...

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Statistics for Economists Lecture 3 Kata Bognar UCLA Probability Methods of Enumeration Permutations Combinations Statistics for Economists Lecture 3 Kata Bognar UCLA September 30, 2010

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Statistics for Economists Lecture 3 Kata Bognar UCLA Probability Methods of Enumeration Permutations Combinations Announcements Homework 1 is due on October 7. Today’s oﬃce hours are 1:00pm - 2:00pm
Statistics for Economists Lecture 3 Kata Bognar UCLA Probability Methods of Enumeration Permutations Combinations Last Lecture Descriptive measures Random experiment, outcomes, events

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Statistics for Economists Lecture 3 Kata Bognar UCLA Probability Methods of Enumeration Permutations Combinations Today’s Outline 1 Probability, probability rules 2 Methods of enumeration 3 Readings: TH, Chapter 1.1 - 1.2 Suggested readings: WS, Chapter 4.3, 4.8 W, Chapter 4.1 - 4.5 4 Readings for next class: TH, Chapter 1.3 - 1.5
Statistics for Economists Lecture 3 Kata Bognar UCLA Probability Methods of Enumeration Permutations Combinations Partitions - Examples Selecting an Econ 41 student randomly A = “a freshmen is selected” and B = “a junior is selected” A and B are mutually exclusive but not exhaustive. Flipping a coin twice A = “at least one heads” and B = “at most one heads” A and B are exhaustive but not mutually exclusive. Selecting an Econ 41 student randomly A 1 = “an econ major is selected” and A 2 = “a non-econ major is selected” A 1 and A 2 form a partition.

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Economists Lecture 3 Kata Bognar UCLA Probability Methods of Enumeration Permutations Combinations Probability The probability of an event measures the likelihood that the event occurs when the experiment is performed. Where do probabilities come from? Probabilities from data : if the experiment can be repeated many times or there are relevant historic data, then the relative frequency of the event can be used as the probability of the outcome. Probabilities from model : if there is a model of the experiment in which it is easy to determine probabilities, i.e. each outcome is equally likely then likelihoods from that model can be used. Subjective probability
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## This note was uploaded on 12/28/2010 for the course ECON 41 taught by Professor Guggenberger during the Fall '07 term at UCLA.

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ec41lecture3b - Statistics for Economists Lecture 3 Kata...

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