HW#6-1.sol.08W

HW#6-1.sol.08W - COMMERCE 290 HOMEWORK #6 Due: Friday,...

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Unformatted text preview: COMMERCE 290 HOMEWORK #6 Due: Friday, November 21, 2008 before 12:00 noon Completed homework must be handed into the Commerce 290 Homework Mailboxes located on the third floor of the Henry Angus Building. These Mailboxes are located across the hall from HA 308. Note: As you know from the course outline, some homework assignments are completed individually and others are completed in groups. This homework is to be ' completed by individual students only. Students are reminded not to work in groups, not to discuss your homework with others and this includes using the Course Discussion Forum as a means of communication for this homework. This is NOT a group work homework. ' DIRECTIONS: ‘ 1. For Questions #1, write all your answers in the indicated ' spaces and show all work on this paper. No additional pages will be accepted. For QUestion #2, staple your work to the end of this homework. 2. Show all work on this homework paper. No credit for answers only! 3. Be sure to include your units in each answer. Last Name: _ First Name; 647LUT'10 N - ' Student Number: ' Signature: Excel Lab Number: Question 1 (40 marks) Do the OMB Textbook Problem 4.25 (German Manufacturing, Chapter 4). Answer the - questions from the textbook in the Spaces provided below. (a) (8 marks) Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. Gem‘sla carter/(rhea 3' ('3ng DEC: PDRcHflf’E s 9‘ _ . _ (4 marks) Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. EMVCmX: (b) M (9203 W 4'0 \__P' Lrs’ M lao E-PPI: ,35‘(ia) + Aha—(14;) +,30(ra¢) = Lléi.’2f75@ yer/gay }® '3th : ‘l EP?II - Emvl : l Lia/.275" 40.25l Since EVPl is large ($9,000) relative to EMV ($40,250) it would be worthwhile to improve the estimates. ' . ) mafikb-«i7 a 2 ( 0 . Twéé 9+vv¢+d"‘@ Ll 0' l3, 0' (00 I Pa!” Cg , Paa‘nbfileb}: l0 _ , ' Li 5' 7-0 (c) (8 marks) Using the information provided in the textbook, What is the probability that tho market research report will be favourable? (flu/“44$ 1 city—M mm :4 PC PCU|M1:"(’ pLult—t]: "1" Pcm]: .35, ' PCH33'30 .* S+uei¢vrb my? guru/e a'l'vi’fioavtswew m a number we wrrzo-twuaf} ,. FEM [U]; I'll/'[plfj-Z ,329 ‘1‘? 36+Sm-a'l‘5 wwsf _ ‘ p p3 4- .355" W sbww waruk. ' 9(1)) .2 .fa‘hf (d) Mew 4-0 (66> , DEC; (Dc/«Am W: {Vt-£0} 3.52%" OPTIMAL STRATEGY If Report does NOT cost mere than $3,648 (43.898— 40.25) © Choose Report: 1 (D If Report Favourable, Choose M ( Manufacture) If Report Unfavourable, Choose P ( Purchase) LD EMV of this Strategy: $43,898 £ ¥, 63,4 v56, mayhem; ML _ ‘ ' dear/mad . , TV-dé s+vv¢'{v’£/ 5" , Praiazbhlt‘fiflie 3' I P 37:: KC; 2- ( l mamék pw 1—. . wtva 1M arr—[m mic/e; Cw: w. 43} 2L 3 2+0 3 9) (e) (f) (2 marks) What is the expected value of the market research information? j. I " l ; l q3;949 - wgflivi 1 Ma» (L5 : #3,??? j ._1 Car {D/fl‘” “’Vq‘l‘flé - --1. 1C wmtflé‘cl47 “yr/‘77 ./ ,c #2 ma m {ncgrrdd'i' ka A atwfls’fz’rr "" a"! (5‘) Ea (2 marks) What'js the efficiency of this information? Evsr ~—' Clo: o 2 CC 0'1 x EVPI 9 [WA ; 3644-3 qaaa 4fi.53 % II‘ .. 140" (140471!“ 1 4;ng m Mama-1L 9:215 we as {caf- Page 5 of 6 Question 2 (20 marks) Do the OMB Textbook Problem 4 (Amy Lloyd Problem, Chapter 4). Answer questions a), b),o),d) from the textbook. Set up this problem in Excel and organize your work so that it is logical, well organized and easy to understand. Attach a one page printout of your work to this homework. _ - 'Page6of6» Question #2 QMB Question 4.4 (a) The decision is to choose which dealer to lease from I } 1 mark The chance event is how many miles she will drive in 1 year ( or 3 year total) } 1 mark (h) (c) input data Forno Midtown Hopkins 0 marks months Lease Period Payoff matrix Cost Miles EMV Conservative Optimistic Regret Forno 13464 11574 Midtown 12960 1 1 160 Hopkins 11700 _ 11700 Best decisions using: Making KW * 1 mark for each of the 9 entri“ in t e cost matrix(Total 9 marks) *1 mark for all 3 numbers in cons rv tive column (Total 1 mark) * 1 mark for all 3 numbers in Optimistic column (Total 1 mark) ‘ * 1 mark each (Total 3 marks) for identifying the best decisions either using a sentence ( to the left) or highlighting with shading in the matrix Conservative: Hopkins Optimistic: Forno Regret: Regret Regret Matrix Miles 45000 54000 1 mark(Total) for Fomo 954 1764 correct entries in Regret Midtown 396 0 1260 . matrix Hopkins 936 540 0 1 mark(Total) feral! 3 numbers in the Regret column (d) Best Decision using EMV: Midtown 1 mark for identifying best decision ' ' (See EMV work in part c) (d) above ) } Marking Key for part (d) *1 mark for all 3 numbers in the EMV column (in part (bic) ...
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HW#6-1.sol.08W - COMMERCE 290 HOMEWORK #6 Due: Friday,...

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