1 May 2010
Significant Harms Take Out—Proliferation Prevents, Not
Proliferation of the NPT will pose major threats.
Levy and Sidel 2007
Levy, Barry & Sidel, Victor. “Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: Opportunities for Control
American Journal of Public Health
97.9 (2007): 1589-1594. RAL
The threat posed by the proliferation of nuclear weapons has 3 major aspects:
1. The development of the capability for producing or acquiring nuclear weapons by countries
that do not currently have nuclear weapons (horizontal proliferation),
2. The increase of weapon stockpiles by countries that currently have nuclear weapons. The
improvement of technical sophistication or reliability of these weapons, and the development of
new weapons, such as "mini-nukes" or battlefield nuclear weapons (vertical proliferation).
3. The acquisition of nuclear weapons or the materials and knowledge by individuals or
nonstate entities, often termed "terrorists," to produce nuclear weapons (another form
of horizontal proliferation).
If we decide to ratify the NPT, it will open up the possibility for the creation of more nuclear
weapons. The NPT will allow new nations to acquire nuclear weapons that don’t already have
Nations, such as Russia, under the NPT will be able to improve upon their current
technology. Therefore, ratifying the NPT is not the route we should take in advancing to a nuclear
weapons free world. The NPT is not the solution to our problems.
The “Nuclear Black Market” is not as big of a threat as we think.
Gavin, Francis. “Same As It Ever Was.”
34.3 (2009): 7-37. RAL
According to terrorism expert Robin Frost, the danger of a “nuclear black market” and
loose nukes from Russia may be overstated. Even if a terrorist group did acquire a nuclear
weapon, delivering and detonating it against a U.S. target would present tremendous technical
and logistical difficulties. Finally, the feared nexus between terrorists and rogue regimes may be
exaggerated. As nuclear proliferation expert Joseph Cirincione argues, states such as Iran and
North Korea are “not the most likely sources for terrorists since their stockpiles, if any, are small
and exceedingly precious, and hence well-guarded.”
Chubin states that there “is no reason to
believe that Iran today, any more than Sadaam Hussein earlier, would transfer WMD [weapons of
mass destruction] technology to terrorist groups like al-Qaida or Hezbollah.” Even if a terrorist
group were to acquire a nuclear device, expert Michael Levi demonstrates that effective planning
can prevent catastrophe: for nuclear terrorists, what “can go wrong might go wrong, and when it