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Please review the law of total probability, conditional probability, and Bayes’ rule before
solving the first two problems.
1
An electronic fuse is produced by five production lines in a manufacturing
operation. The fuses are costly, are quite reliable, and are shipped to suppliers in 100unit
lots. Because testing is destructive, most buyers of the fuses test only a small number of
fuses before deciding to accept or reject lots of incoming fuses. All five production lines
produce fuses at the same rate and normally produce only 2% defective fuses, which are
dispersed randomly in the output. Unfortunately, production line 1 suffered mechanical
difficulty and produced 5% defectives during the month of March. This situation became
known to the manufacturer after the fuses had been shipped. A customer received a lot
produced in March and tested three fuses. One failed. What is the probability that the lot
was produced on line 1? What is the probability that the lot came from one of the four
other lines? (Example 2.23 in the book)
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 Spring '10
 WaleedA.Yousef

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