Lecture3 - Risk Assessment and Management Lecture 3: Simple...

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1 Risk Assessment and Management Lecture 3: Simple Risk Models, Is it safer to fly or drive? Reading Material of the Week s Evans et al., Is it safer to fly or drive? (From Reading Materials) s Barnett, It’s safer to fly (From Reading Materials) s Evans et al., Response to Barnett (From Reading Materials) s Sivak et al., Nonstop flying is safer than driving (From Reading Materials)
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2 Is it safer to fly or drive? s Airline and automobile travel account for 98.2% of intercity travel miles in the US. s Over 18,000 airline take-offs and landings and 370 million car trips are completed safely every day. Safest systems of the world! s Almost everyday alarming reports on near mid-air collisions, aging fleets, component failures, etc. Risk communication experts try to reduce the fear by quoting comparisons between the fatality risk of driving and fatality risk of flying. Is it safer to fly or drive? s Airline passengers awaiting take-off are sometimes told that they have already completed the most dangerous part of their trip – the drive to the airport s Highway fatality rate: 24 deaths per billion miles and Regularly scheduled airline fatality rate: 0.6 deaths per billion miles s Individuals use these in making their fly/drive decisions s But more importantly, policy analysts use them uncritically to calculate the fatality reductions derived from shifting travel from highway sector to air sector
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3 Is it safer to fly or drive? Problems associated with above rates: s These rates are passenger deaths per passenger mile for airlines but all traffic fatalities (all vehicle occupants, pedestrians, etc.) per vehicle mile for road travel s Road travel that competes with air travel is on the rural interstate system, average road fatalities should be excluded s Driver and vehicle characteristics and driver behavior lead to car-driver risks that vary over a wide range Is it safer to fly or drive? s In this article, traveler fatality risks per traveler mile for car travel are estimated for one car occupant – the driver s The effects of driver age, alcohol use, safety belt use, car mass and roadway systems on fatality risk are investigated
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4 Is it safer to fly or drive? s The fatality rate for airline travel in the US is the average over the 10 year period (1978-1987): 0.551 fatalities per billion passenger miles. s The car-driver fatality rate F is: F=F o x M age x M alcohol x M belt x M mass x M road F o is the average fatality rate for drivers, factors represent upward or downward departures from this average rate. This model assumes that each factor operates independently! Is it safer to fly or drive? s 46,386 traffic fatalities that occurred in 1924.3 billion vehicle miles of travel which gives a rate of 24.1 fatalities per billion vehicle miles. s
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Lecture3 - Risk Assessment and Management Lecture 3: Simple...

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