Psychology of Intel - Exploring Cognitive Biases 17 October...

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Exploring Cognitive Biases 17 October 2007 Team NSA Mark Blair Dan McNulty Brittany Monteparte Andreea Neagu Adrienne Sluga
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Agenda Key Findings Definitions Anchoring Effect Availability Heuristic Conjunction Fallacy Video Confirmation Bias Groupthink Application
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Key Findings Cognitive Biases Are Not An Indictment Of An Individual’s Analytical Abilities Two Types Of Analysts Those Who Are Aware Of Their Own Biases Those Who Are Not Aware Of Their Own Biases Memory Is Not Localized
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Cognitive Biases “Cognitive biases are mental errors caused by our simplified information processing strategies.” Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richard J. Heuer “Strategic decision making is particularly vulnerable to the influence of cognitive biases, misguided thought patterns that result from the simplifying strategies or decision-making shortcuts known as judgment heuristics. These common errors in judgment can lead to disastrous consequences and are often the result of either insufficient information or not enough of the right kind of information.” Cognitive Bias in Everyday Strategic Planning by Loren Gary
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Cognitive Biases Fundamental Limitations In Human Mental Processes Simple Rules Of Thumb Leading To Faulty Judgments Similar To Optical Illusions Physical Images That Appear Misleading The Brain Carries Weaknesses Awareness Of The Bias Does Not Produce A More Accurate Perception Source: http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/psych-intel/art12.html Source: http://www.eyetricks.com/illusions.htm
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Biases “Any systematic deviation from the truth that affects the conclusions you make based on your data.” The National EMSC Date Analysis Resource Center “When a point of view prevents impartial judgment on issues relating to the subject of that point of view. MedicineNet, Inc “Bias, or systematic error, favors particular results.” Annenburg Foundation
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Fallacy “A fallacy is a general type of appeal (or category of argument) that resembles good reasoning, but that we should not find to be persuasive. http://www.cuyamaca.edu/brucethompson/Fallacies/discussion. “Fallacies are mistakes of reasoning, as opposed to making mistakes that are of a factual nature.” http://philosophy.hku.hk/think/
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Heuristics “A heuristic is a mental shortcut that allows people to solve problems and make judgments quickly and efficiently. The rule-of-thumb strategies shorten decision-making time and allow people to function without constantly stopping to think about the next course of action. While heuristics are helpful in many situations, they can also lead to biases.” Psychologist, Kendra Van Wagner
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Anchoring Effect
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Also Known As Focalism Tendency To Rely Too Heavily On One Trait Or Piece Of Information Bias Toward A Certain Value Emphasis Based On When The Information Is Received Rather
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Psychology of Intel - Exploring Cognitive Biases 17 October...

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