Lecture-17-F10

Lecture-17-F10 - EAS 111 General Announcements Exam 2...

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Unformatted text preview: EAS 111 General Announcements 11/8/10 Exam 2 Results N = 154 Mean = 72 Median = 72 Max, Top Score = 100 56 people scored higher than 80! Lecture Course Results Part 1 = 105 pts Part 2 = 125 pts No Labs in this score In Blackboard as “Lecture (Pt 1+2+3) raw total” N = 159 Mean = 171 Median = 176 Max = 230 Top Score = 226 Lab Exam 2 Partial Results N = 79 (so far) Mean = 27 Median = 27 Max = 40 Top Score = 39.5 Earth and Atmospheric Sciences 111 Fall 2010 Climate Change and Moving Ice -Global climate and climate change, long & short term -Stabilization, adaptation -Glaciers: mechanics and features -Lecture 17 (and material from 16) Weather vs. Climate • “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get” – Weather involves short time scales – days to weeks to maybe months – Climate is a long-term average – Changes noticeable and demonstrable over years of accumulated data – Climate change results in a change of average conditions, around which weather varies – Weather variance and weather types also change with climate change Opinion Poll: What is the biggest DRIVER of climate on Earth? What provides most of the energy? provides A. energy from the solid Earth – internal A. energy energy B. the sun’s energy C. the biosphere (living things) D. human energy use Opinion Poll: Which of the Earth’s systems have the largest effect on climate? climate? A. the lithosphere (solid Earth) B. the atmosphere (air) C. the biosphere (living things) D. the hydrosphere (oceans, lakes, etc.) Observe the interaction of sunlight with the Observe atmosphere, oceans, and land atmosphere, Solar Solar energy energy Some retained by Greenhouse Gasses Some Greenhouse (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane) (water Infrared energy Sunlight Sunlight reflected by clouds and particles particles Sunlight Sunlight reflected by land and oceans oceans Energy Energy absorbed by atmosphere atmosphere Sunlight Sunlight reflected by atmosphere atmosphere Energy Energy absorbed by land and oceans oceans Energy absorbed Energy by clouds and particles particles 13.11.a Observe global wind patterns Sets up flow cells Cool air descends Hot air rises Prevailing Prevailing westerlies and easterlies easterlies Flow deflected Flow by Earth’s rotation rotation 13.01.c1 Observe Observe the main ocean surface currents currents Observe Observe where deep ocean currents flow flow 13.05.a-b How Ocean Currents Affect Temperatures on Land Warm current from tropics Prevailing easterlies bring Prevailing warm, moist air to land warm, Australia North North Atlantic currents currents Warm Gulf Stream Warm current current Prevailing Prevailing westerlies westerlies 13.05.c Long Term Climate Change Really long term… Consider how climate might change as a plate moves Permian Permian (260 Ma) (260 North America America Eurasia Cretaceous Cretaceous (75 Ma) (75 a d Sea d Se In an Inllan A p M pal ou ac nt hi ai an ns Gondwana Neogene Neogene (20 Ma) (20 North North America America ta tall Coas s Coas ns ta ntaiin moun mou R ap sp id re sea a d fl in oo gr 13.12.b North North America America Geology Affects Climate Locally too Rising, heated air Rising, causes low pressure pressure Dry season Heavy Heavy precip. along mountain front front Rainy season Moist onshore Moist flow of air flow 13.06.a Shorter Term Climate Change 100,000s to 100s of years Greenhouse Gases and Temperature-Change Greenhouse Records from Ice Cores 13.11.a5 Is there a cause and effect relationship between temperature and CO2? temperature Earth’s Orbit Drives most climate change on the 20-100K yr time scale Evidence for Global Temperature Changes, Part 2 Ice core proxy Coral proxy Comparing estimates The concern is the RATE of change here in recent years 13.10.a IPCC 2007 – Working Group 1 IPCC The Take-Away Message: The State of the Global Climate p A A Solar energy provides the biggest driver Solar input variations on the scale of 10s to 100s Solar of thousands of years explains a large fraction of climate change climate However, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane and (CH4) explain the rest (CH CO2 concentrations are racing upwards now because of human activities, and the planet is warming more and faster than it normally would as a result as A The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21st century calculated by the HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4 °F). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming From the Princeton Environmental Institute http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/ Supported by BP, Ford and many other energy and automotive companies Stabilization Wedges A Concept and Game This presentation is based on the “Stabilization Wedges” concept first presented in "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” S. Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004. Fossil Fuel Burning 8 billion tons go in ATMOSPHERE 4 billion tons added every year billion tons carbon 800 Ocean Land Biosphere (net) 2 + 2 = 4 billion tons go out Past, Present, and Potential Future Carbon Levels in the Atmosphere ATMOSPHERE 2 1200 800 600 400 Billions of tons of carbon (570) Today “Doubled” CO Pre-Industrial Glacial (380) (285) (190) billions of tons carbon ( ppm ) Historical Emissions 16 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 8 Historical emissions 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 The Stabilization Triangle 16 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year = “ p” m ra h at tp en rr Stabilization Cu Triangle Interim Goal 8 Historical emissions Flat path 1.6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 The Stabilization Triangle 16 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year = Easier CO2 target “ p” m ra ~850 ppm h at tp en rr Stabilization Cu Triangle Interim Goal 8 Historical emissions Flat path To ug h ~5 er C 00 O2 pp m targ 1.6 et 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 Stabilization Wedges 16 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year h at tp en rr Cu = m ra “ p” 16 GtC/y Eight “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today 8 Historical emissions Flat path 1.6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 What is a “Wedge”? What A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 1 GtC/yr Total = 25 Gigatons carbon 50 years Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge. 15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) 16 GtC/y Fuel Switching (1) CO2 Capture & Storage (3) 2007 Stabilization Stabilization Triangle 8 GtC/y 2057 Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Forest and Soil Storage (2) Nuclear Fission (1) Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA Efficiency Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055 Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge E, T, H / $ Sector s affected: E = Electricity, T =Transport, H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$ Fuel Switching Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey). A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today E, H / $ Carbon Capture & Storage Implement CCS at • 800 GW coal electric plants or • 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or • 180 coal synfuels plants or • 10 times today’s capacity of hydrogen plants Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500. E, T, H / $$ Nuclear Electricity Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055 Graphic courtesy of NRC The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990. E/ $$ Wind Electricity Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coalbased electricity, OR Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel Photo courtesy of DOE E, T, H / $-$$ A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30 Solar Electricity Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054 Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times E / $$$ Biofuels Scale up current global ethanol production by 30 times Photo courtesy of NREL Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops T, H / $$ Natural Sinks Eliminate tropical deforestation OR Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S. OR Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha) Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland B/$ Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO Take Home Messages In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need we to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or rapidly enhance natural sinks enhance We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to We make large cuts in emissions and make money doing it! and No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of No strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling CO Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs Every Visit the wedges webpage at http://www.princeton.edu/wedges Glaciers and Past Glaciers Glaciations: Glaciations: One of the most sensitive One recorders of climate recorders Interpreted extent of ice sheets 20,000 years ago 14.10.c Interpretation of temperature Interpretation variations over the last 100,000 years variations Observe how Observe much sea level has risen and fallen in the past past Lower Lower during ice ages ice Much higher in the past 14.08.a1 How Snow and Ice How Accumulate in Glaciers Accumulate Snowflakes pressed together Snowflakes by weight of other snowflakes by More snow adds weight and More compresses flakes into small spheres spheres Increasing depth and pressure Increasing cause snow to become crystalline ice; commonly bluish from trapped air from 14.11.a2 Glacier moves by slipping Glacier along base and internal shearing and flow of ice crystals crystals Upper surface fractures Upper and forms crevasses and Irregular, Irregular, dry interface between bedrock and glacier may lock base of glacier may 14.11.c If interface is wet If and smoother, glacier may slide glacier Observe how a glacier forms and changes as it Observe moves downhill moves Glacier loses ice and snow Glacier Glacier forms where Glacier by melting, wind erosion, accumulation of snow and sublimation and and ice exceeds loss loss 14.11.b1 White up high Equilibrium Equilibrium line: loses equal accumulations accumulations Ice melts away at lower Ice elevations, on land or in water elevations, Blue lower down CPS: Glaciers and ice sheets are sensitive climate indicators because: A. Glaciers respond mostly to tectonics, which drives climate change B. Glaciers flow to sea level, and that responds to climate change C. Solar energy is mostly absorbed by glaciers, so the more glaciers, the warmer the climate D. Amounts of snowfall and melting are delicately balanced in glaciers, so maximum ice extent is a sensitive climate indicator. E. Ice sheets and glaciers are not greatly affected by climate change. Landscape Features of Continental Ice Sheets Polished surface Till Ice sheet Ice shelf 14.13.a Landscape Features of Continental Ice Sheets a all ss on ssiion Rece ne Rece raiine Mo Mora Esker Esker Kettle Kettle Lakes Lakes Dru mli ns Glacial Outwash Glacial (Sediment) (Sediment) Te r Mo mina rai l ne 14.13.a na iinall Term ne Term iine Mora Mora Eskers Evidence Left Behind by Glaciers Glaciers carve into land Glaciers and deposit sediment and U-shaped valleys 14.10.a1 Glacial erratic Striations Glacial till Observe the topography of the Great Lakes area Lake Superior Superior Numerous lakes Lake Lake Huron Huron Lake Lake Michigan Michigan Lake Lake Erie Erie Lake Lake Ontario Ontario Curved Curved ridges ridges 14.00.a1.central Landscape Features of Continental Ice Sheets a all ss on ssiion Rece ne Rece raiine Mo Mora Esker Esker Kettle Kettle Lakes Lakes Dru mli ns Glacial Outwash Glacial (Sediment) (Sediment) Te r Mo mina rai l ne 14.13.a na iinall Term ne Term iine Mora Mora Eskers Observe features left behind by continental glaciers Observe in the Great Lakes region Glacially smoothed troughs Glacially 14.13.a5 What are these long ridges? A.Eskers B.Drumlins C.Tectonic features related to faults D.Recessional or terminal moraines Rough, nonglaciated areas Landscape Features of Mountain Landscape Glaciers Glaciers Arêtes Moraines 14.12.a Cirque Hanging valley Observe the setting of glaciers, Observe ice sheets, and ice shelves near West Antarctica near 14.16.a Ice sheet Ice builds on land and moves toward sea toward Outer parts of ice Outer sheet float on the sea as ice shelves shelves What could happen to West Antarctica if global What temperature or sea levels rise? temperature Part of Part Larsen Ice Shelf collapsed in 2002 in Before Before collapse collapse 14.16.b After After collapse collapse One possible scenario: One rising sea level floats more ice sheet, detaching it from bedrock bedrock Consider the impact of a 6 Consider meter (~20 feet) rise in sea level on the East Coast level What areas are most What vulnerable and why? vulnerable Low lying areas next to a Low relatively gentle and flat coastline coastline 14.16.d1 EAS 111: Assignments for 11/10/10 Follow up readings for today: 13.5, 13.6, 13.12, 13.11, 13.10 (this order will make the most sense I think) - The basics of global climate and climate change • Glaciers, Ice and Sea Level • 14.10, 14.11, 14.13, 14.12, 14.15, 14.16 For next time: • Water, Rivers and Floods – 16.1, 16.3, 16.5, 16.8, 16.10, 16.11, 16.12, 16.14 ...
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This note was uploaded on 01/12/2011 for the course EAS 111 taught by Professor Dr.ericriggs during the Spring '10 term at Purdue.

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