Midterm_2_2009 - IEOR 150 Midterm II 1. Observed weekly...

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IEOR 150 Midterm II 1. Observed weekly sales of ball peen hammers at the town hardware store over an eight-week period have been 14, 9, 30, 22, 34, 12, 19 and 23 (25 points) (a) Suppose the three-week moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the one-step- ahead forecasts for week 4 through week 8 (7 points) (b) Suppose that exponential smoothing is used with a smoothing constant of α = 0.15. Find the exponential smoothing forecasts for week 4 through 8. (To get started, use the same forecast for week 4 as you used in part (a)) (8 points) (c) Based the MAD, which method did better? (5 points) (d) What is the exponential smoothing forecast made at the end of week 6 for the sales in week 12? (5 points) 2. Lakeroad, a manufacturer of hard disks for personal computers, was founded in 1991 and has sold the following numbers of disks: (20 points) Year Number sold (in thousands) Year Number sold (in thousands) 1991 0.2 1995 34.5 1992 4.3 1996 68.2 1993 8.8 1997 85
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Midterm_2_2009 - IEOR 150 Midterm II 1. Observed weekly...

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