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IEOR 150 Midterm II
1. Observed weekly sales of ball peen hammers at the town hardware store over an eightweek period
have been 14, 9, 30, 22, 34, 12, 19 and 23 (25 points)
(a) Suppose the threeweek moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the onestep
ahead forecasts for week 4 through week 8 (7 points)
(b) Suppose that exponential smoothing is used with a smoothing constant of α = 0.15. Find the
exponential smoothing forecasts for week 4 through 8. (To get started, use the same forecast
for week 4 as you used in part (a)) (8 points)
(c) Based the MAD, which method did better? (5 points)
(d) What is the exponential smoothing forecast made at the end of week 6 for the sales in week
12? (5 points)
2. Lakeroad, a manufacturer of hard disks for personal computers, was founded in 1991 and has sold
the following numbers of disks: (20 points)
Year
Number sold (in thousands)
Year
Number sold (in thousands)
1991
0.2
1995
34.5
1992
4.3
1996
68.2
1993
8.8
1997
85
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This document was uploaded on 01/13/2011.
 Fall '09

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