tte4004%20Chapter%203%2C121 - Forecasting Travel Demand The...

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To perform a conditional prediction of To perform a conditional prediction of travel demand in order to estimate the travel demand in order to estimate the likely transportation alternatives likely transportation alternatives (Including the do (Including the do - - nothing alternative) nothing alternative) that are considered for implementation. that are considered for implementation. The purpose of the travel forecasting phase of the transportation planning process is: Forecasting Travel Demand Forecasting Travel Demand
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Land use and Socioeconomic Land use and Socioeconomic projections projections Trip generation Trip distribution Modal choice Network assignment
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1. Trip Generation 1. Trip Generation The object of trip-generation is to forecast the number of person-trips that will begin from or end in each travel zone within the region for a typical day of the target year. Prior to its application, a trip generation model must be calibrated using observa- tions taken during the base year by means of variety of travel surveys.
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1. Trip Generation 1. Trip Generation The total number of person-trips (or # trips per HH) generated constitutes the dependant variable of the model. The independent or explanatory variables include land use and socioeconomic factors
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Trip generation inputs & outputs Trip generation inputs & outputs Land use and socioeconomic target-year allocation by zone Calibrated trip-generation model Amount of trip making of each zone Q I
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Trip Purpose Trip Purpose The zonal trip making Q I is estimated separately for each of a number of trip purposes. e.g. Work trips Medical (for elderly study) Other Shopping trips Social or recreational The purpose is that every type of trips is different in nature (e.g. time)
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Trip Purpose Trip Purpose Home 1. HBW 2. NHBS 3. HBS Work Shopping 1 2 3 Home Work 2 home-based work trips
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Trip Purpose Trip Purpose The reason separate trip-generation models are usually developed for each trip purpose is that the travel behavior of trip-makers depends on the trip purpose (time of day) Morning & afternoon peak e.g. Work trip Same origins & destinations
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This note was uploaded on 01/13/2011 for the course CECS Transporta taught by Professor Essamradwan during the Spring '10 term at University of Central Florida.

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tte4004%20Chapter%203%2C121 - Forecasting Travel Demand The...

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