3-comportementale-article

3-comportementale-article - Th´ eorie des jeux Th´ eorie...

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Unformatted text preview: Th´ eorie des jeux Th´ eorie des jeux comportementale 1/ Th´ eorie des jeux comportementale Plan du chapitre (3 septembre 2007) – Introduction – Exemples d’exp´ eriences ➀ “Concours de beaut´ e”, ´ elimination it´ erative et profondeur de raisonnement ➁ Coordination et convention ➂ Strat´ egies mixtes ➃ Jeu de l’ultimatum – Protocole exp´ erimental 2/ Qu’est-ce que c’est ? Branche r´ ecente de la th´ eorie des jeux fond´ ee sur la d´ emarche exp´ erimentale Approche empirique/descriptive reposant sur des donn´ ees (´ etudes en laboratoire) et sur des faits psychologiques ➥ Quels sont les comportements r´ eels des individus dans les jeux Pourquoi une telle approche? ➢ Mettre en ´ evidence des r´ egularit´ es empiriques de comportement ➢ Caract´ eriser les conditions favorables/d´ efavorables ` a la th´ eorie ➢ Proposer des suggestions d’extensions de la th´ eorie (erreurs, anticipation im- parfaite, m´ emoire imparfaite, apprentissage, . . . ) ➢ ´ Evaluer des politiques et des institutions nouvelles (nouvelles tarifications, . . . ) ➢ Outil d’enseignement et d’initiation aux m´ ecanismes de march´ e et aux interac- tions strat´ egiques Th´ eorie des jeux Th´ eorie des jeux comportementale 3/ M´ ethodologie de l’´ economie exp´ erimentale ➢ Reproduire au mieux les conditions de la th´ eorie dans le laboratoire ➢ Repr´ esenter chaque agent par un sujet amen´ e ` a prendre des d´ ecisions r´ eelles ➢ Donner les mˆ emes incitations ` a un sujet que celles de l’agent qu’il repr´ esente (r´ emun´ eration mon´ etaire, . . . ) ➢ Montrer comment les sujets se comportent Avantages ➀ Possibilit´ es de contrˆ ole ( negationslash = ´ etudes empiriques de terrain) ➁ Possibilit´ es de r´ eplications 4/ Fig. 1 – Daniel Kahneman (1934– ) et Vernon L. Smith (1927- ), Prix Nobel d’´ economie en 2002 Th´ eorie des jeux Th´ eorie des jeux comportementale 5/ “Concours de beaut´ e” et profondeur de raisonnement Dans la “Th´ eorie g´ en´ erale de l’emploi, de l’int´ erˆ et et de la monnaie”, Keynes (1936) compare les march´ es d’actions avec les concours de certains journaux (“ beauty contests ”) : “Professional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the com- petitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole ; so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view. It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of one’ s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which the average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the thirdthose which the average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest....
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This note was uploaded on 01/23/2011 for the course ECONOMICS gt512 taught by Professor Breviart during the Spring '10 term at Télécom Paris.

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3-comportementale-article - Th´ eorie des jeux Th´ eorie...

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