Chapter10Slides

Chapter10Slides - Example: Break-even Analysis Input Year...

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Unformatted text preview: Example: Break-even Analysis Input Year Cash Flow Investment $160 2005 ($80) Price $760 per ton 2006-80 Cost $600 per ton 2007 $40 Cost $16 per year 2008 $40 Production 0.35 million per year 2009 $40 2010 $40 Output 2011 $40 Price 2012 $40 Production Length 2013 $40 2014 $40 2015 $40 2016 $40 2017 $40 2018 $40 2019 $40 2020 $40 2021 $40 $24.80 Break-even Price Analysis Price PW(18%) $650.00 $(141.32) $660.00 $(126.22) $670.00 $(111.12) $680.00 $(96.02) $690.00 $(80.92) $700.00 $(65.82) $710.00 $(50.71) $720.00 $(35.61) $730.00 $(20.51) $740.00 $(5.41) $750.00 $9.69 $760.00 $24.79 $770.00 $39.89 $780.00 $54.99 $790.00 $70.09 $800.00 $85.19 $810.00 $100.29 650 670 690 710-200-150-100-50 50 100 150 PW(18%) Break-even Production Run Length Years PW(18%) 1 ($100.91) 2 ($80.27) 3 ($62.79) 4 ($47.97) 5 ($35.42) 6 ($24.77) 7 ($15.76) 8 ($8.11) 9 ($1.64) 10 $3.85 11 $8.50 12 $12.45 13 $15.79 14 $18.62 15 $21.02 1 3 5 7-120-100-80-60-40-20 20 40 Years PW(18%) 730 750 770 790 810 Price 9 11 13 15 s Production Sherritt Mining Example: Sensitivity Analysis Input Perturbation Year Cash Flow Production Nickel 14000 2005-$50.00 Cobalt 2000 2006-$200.00 Price Nickel $12,000.00 2007-$200.00 Cobalt $33,000.00 2008 $129.80 Cost $6,200.00 2009 $129.80 Fixed Cost $5.00 2010 $129.80 Interest 20%-0.15 2011 $129.80 2012 $129.80 2013 $129.80 2014 $129.80 2015 $129.80 2016 $129.80 2017 $129.80 $63.84 Single Parameter Analysis Error-0.3-0.2-0.1 0.1 0.2 Nickel Prod ($47.80) ($28.10) ($8.40) $11.31 $31.01 $50.71 Cobalt Prod ($27.71) ($14.70) ($1.70) $11.31 $24.31 $37.31 Nickel Price ($110.98) ($70.21) ($29.45) $11.31 $52.07 $92.83 Cobalt Price ($36.73) ($20.72) ($4.71) $11.31 $27.32 $43.33 Prod Cost $83.51 $59.44 $35.37 $11.31 ($12.76) ($36.83) Interest $124.24 $82.05 $47.30 $18.62 ($5.06) ($24.64) Fixed Cost $22.26 $21.05 $19.84 $11.31 $17.41 $16.20 Error Nickel Prod Cobalt Prod Nickel Price Cobalt Price Prod Cost Interest-0.3 ($40.49) ($20.40) ($103.67) ($29.42) $90.82 $124.24 -0.2 ($20.79) ($7.39) ($62.90) ($13.41) $66.75 $82.05 -0.1 ($1.09) $5.61 ($22.14) $2.60 $42.68 $47.30 $18.62 $18.62 $18.62 $18.62 $18.62 $18.62 0.1 $38.32 $31.62 $59.38 $34.63 ($5.45) ($5.06) 0.2 $58.02 $44.62 $100.14 $50.64 ($29.52) ($24.64) 0.3 $77.72 $57.63 $140.90 $66.65 ($53.59) ($40.82) 2-Parameter Analysis Nickel Price Interest Rate PW PW Change-0.3-0.3 ($53.20)-385.79%-0.15 ($82.76)-544.58% ($103.67)-656.91% 0.15 ($118.22)-735.07% 0.3 ($128.11)-788.20% 300 350-0.15-0.3 $35.52 90.81%-0.15 ($9.46)-150.82% ($42.52)-328.41% 0.15 ($66.77)-458.68% 0.3 ($84.46)-553.71%-0.3 $124.25 567.46%-0.15 $63.84 242.94% $18.62 0.00% 0.15 ($15.32)-182.30% 0.3 ($40.82)-319.28% 0.15-0.3 $212.97 1044.06%1044....
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Chapter10Slides - Example: Break-even Analysis Input Year...

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