Trends - Trend --The general drift or tendency in a set of...

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Unformatted text preview: Trend --The general drift or tendency in a set of data The general direction, either upward or downward, in which prices have been moving A direction demonstrated through observation of data and/or indicators over time The change in a series of data over a period of years The general direction of the market Forecasting the future is a risky business at best Forecasting Predicting current and future market trends using existing data and facts Estimating the likelihood of an event taking place in the future, based on available data from the past Predicting future events or outcomes, often using complex mathematical tools, such as Box-Jenkins models Past Predictions Inventions Inventions have long since reached their limit, and I see no hope for further developments," Roman engineer Julius Sextus Frontinus, A.D. 10. Lord Kelvin, the president of Great Britains Royal Society, confidently predicted in 1895 that heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. Charles Duell, the U.S. Patent Office commissioner, who announced to the nation in 1899 that Everything that can be invented has been invented. In 1966, Arthur C. Clarke wrote in Vogue magazine that houses would fly by 2001. Past Decisions/Predictions Business In 1889, Western Union president William Orten turned down Alexander Graham Bells offer to sell his then-struggling telephone company for only $100,000, saying, What use could this company make of an electrical toy? Yale University professor Irving Fisher, a noted economist, proclaimed in 1929 that Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. By the turn of this century, we will live in a paperless society," Roger Smith, chairman of General Motors, 1986 Past Computer Predictions Computers Who can forget IBM Chairman Thomas Watsons prediction in 1958 when he said, I think there is a world market for about five computers. It is unlikely everyone will have his own computer any time soon," Reporter Stanley Penn, The Wall Street Journal , 1966...
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This note was uploaded on 01/23/2011 for the course MKT 474 taught by Professor Hermmes during the Spring '10 term at Missouri State University-Springfield.

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Trends - Trend --The general drift or tendency in a set of...

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