Supply chain mgt seasonal example-1

# Supply chain mgt seasonal example-1 - A_t(tilda) January...

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Month Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Total(Month) Seasonal Index January 10 12 11 33 0.33 February 13 13 11 37 0.37 March 33 38 29 100 1 April 45 54 47 146 1.46 May 53 56 55 164 1.64 June 57 56 55 168 1.68 July 33 27 34 94 0.94 August 20 18 19 57 0.57 September 19 22 20 61 0.61 October 18 18 15 51 0.51 November 46 50 45 141 1.41 December 48 53 47 148 1.48 Total (Year) 395 417 388 1200 12 Average= 32.92 34.75 32.33 100 1

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Month Realized Demand A_t(tilda) January February March April May June July 34 August 28 September 20 October 30 November 40 December ?
The assumption you have to consider here is that the demand realizes after you forecast. For instance, first you observe the demand for July and use it to forecast the demand for August. Then, the demand for August realizes and you use it to forecast the demand for September.

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Month SI F_t F_t (tilda) A_t
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Unformatted text preview: A_t(tilda) January 0.33 February 0.37 March 1.00 April 1.46 May 1.64 June 1.68 July 0.94 36.00 33.84 36.17 34.00 August 0.57 36.03 20.54 49.12 28.00 September 0.61 38.65 23.58 32.79 20.00 October 0.51 37.48 19.11 58.82 30.00 November 1.41 41.75 58.86 28.37 40.00 December 1.48 39.07 57.83 ? smoothing constanta alpha 0.2 F_t is the deseasonalized forecast F_t(tilda) is the seasonalized forecast A_t is the deseasonalized actual demand: This is used for calculating the forecast for the next period A_t(tilda) is the actual realization of demand in the period. This is used to calculate A_t(tilda)...
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## This note was uploaded on 01/25/2011 for the course MGT 4803 taught by Professor Staff during the Spring '08 term at Georgia Institute of Technology.

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Supply chain mgt seasonal example-1 - A_t(tilda) January...

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