MAN - Answers to select problems in Chapter 4...

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Answers to select problems in Chapter 4 D ISCUSSION  Q UESTIONS 1. Qualitative models incorporate subjective factors into the forecasting model. Qualitative models are useful when subjective factors are important. When quantitative data are difficult to obtain, qualitative models may be appropriate. 6. There is no mechanism for growth in these models; they are built exclusively from historical demand values. Such methods will always lag trends. 8. MAD, MSE, and MAPE are common measures of forecast accuracy. To find the more accurate forecasting model, forecast with each tool for several periods where the demand outcome is known, and calculate MSE, MAPE, or MAD for each. The smaller error indicates the better forecast. 11. A time series is a sequence of evenly spaced data points with the four components of trend, seasonality, cyclical, and random variation. 18. Independent variable ( x ) is said to explain variations in the dependent variable ( y ). E ND - OF -C HAPTER  P ROBLEMS (b) Year Mileag e Two- Year Movin Avera ge Error |Error| 1 3,000 2 4,000 3 3,400 3,500 –100 100 4 3,800 3,700 100 100 5 3,700 3,600 100 100
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Totals 100 300 4.5 (c) Weighted 2 year M.A. with .6 weight for most recent year. Year Mileage Forecast Error |Error| 1 3,000 2 4,000 3 3,400 3,600 –200 200 4 3,800 3,640 160 160 5 3,700 3,640 60 60   420 Forecast for year 6 is 3,740 miles. 4.5
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This note was uploaded on 01/25/2011 for the course MAN 4504 taught by Professor Benson during the Spring '08 term at University of Florida.

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MAN - Answers to select problems in Chapter 4...

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