Challenges in Transportation

Challenges in Transportation - Wei-Shiuen Ng and Lee...

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Wei-Shiuen Ng and Lee Schipper 1 China Motorization Trends: Policy Options in a World of Transport Challenges December 1, 2006 Wei-Shiuen Ng (corresponding author) Research Associate EMBARQ World Resources Institute 10 G Street, NE (Suite 800) Washington D.C. 20002 1 202 729 7722 (Phone) 1 202 729-7775 (Fax) wng@wri.org Lee Schipper Director of Research EMBARQ World Resources Institute 10 G Street, NE (Suite 800) Washington D.C. 20002 1 202 729 7735 (Phone) 1 202 729-7775 (Fax) schipper@wri.org Word Count: 6, 699
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Wei-Shiuen Ng and Lee Schipper 2 ABSTRACT This paper examines motorization trends in China, which has led to increasing energy consumption and air pollution. Three transport energy scenarios, “Road Ahead,” “Oil Saved,” and “Integrated Transport” were used to illustrate potential future motorization trends given different policy, vehicle technology, alternative fuel, and driving behavior assumptions. In the “Integrated Transport” scenario, transport oil consumption is 12 percent of the total value in “Road Ahead” by 2020, while carbon emission is 79 percent lower. Policies such as vehicle technology requirements, fiscal policies, and the prioritization of public and non- motorized transport are some of the suggested measures if China wants to reduce its transport energy consumption and greenhouse gas.
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Wei-Shiuen Ng and Lee Schipper 3 INTRODUCTION As the fastest growing economy in the world, China is experiencing a rapid increase in motor vehicle ownership, in the process gaining immense economic and personal mobility benefits. However, this unsustainable explosion in car ownership has led to rising congestion, increased air pollution from motor vehicles, increased oil consumption, and high traffic fatalities. A sustainable transportation system would meet the increasing demand for private motorization without compromising the economic and welfare gains from greater mobility. Although the current daily trips made by private vehicles is only 10 percent of the total in most Chinese cities, the rapid growth of private vehicles, which will no doubt increase in ownership and use, threatens the sustainability of existing transport systems. Scenarios are used in this study to illustrate how different assumptions can lead to various outcomes. The scenarios show how effective mobility management, with the aid of fuel and vehicle technologies, could reduce oil consumption and many of the negative impacts of rapid private motorization. In addition, advanced fuel and vehicle technologies and approaches could prevent China’s conflicting economic development and environmental sustainability goals, by providing relatively smaller, safer, and cleaner vehicles to meet the growing demand. The high forecasts of private motor vehicle ownership and the
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Wei-Shiuen Ng and Lee Schipper 4 subsequent oil demand imply enormous strains on urban infrastructure and energy imports. These strains would be much easier to avoid with sustainable transport policies enacted now rather than one or two decades later. This study explores existing and potential Chinese transport and energy
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Challenges in Transportation - Wei-Shiuen Ng and Lee...

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