land use planning and transport

land use planning and transport - LAND USE POLICY AND...

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LAND USE POLICY AND TRANSPORTATION: WHY WE WON ’T GET THERE FROM HERE July 1999 Presented at the Conference Policies for Fostering Sustainable Transportation Technologies Asilomar Conference Center Monterey, CA August 1997 Forthcoming in Transportation Research Board Circular Genevieve Giuliano School of Policy, Planning and Development University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089-0626 giuliano@almaak.usc.edu
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1 Sections 2 and 3 of this paper are adapted from G. Giuliano (1998) “Urban Travel Patterns,” in B. Hoyle and R. Knowles, eds., Modern Transport Geography , 2 nd edition. 1 LAND USE POLICY AND TRANSPORTATION: WHY WE WON ’T GET THERE FROM HERE 1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this paper is to consider the effectiveness of land use policy as an instrument for reducing environmental and other external costs associated with ownership and use of the private automobile. Emphasis is placed on the long run, since land use change is a slow process, and consequently can potentially have significant effects only in the long run. I will argue that land use change is driven by factors over which we have little policy control, and that current trends of decentralization will continue in the future. Although the link between urban form and travel behavior may be significant, it is highly unlikely that policy actions could shift urban form to patterns associated with less private vehicle travel. The paper begins by presenting some information on international trends in travel and land use patterns. Then I discuss explanatory factors associated with these trends. The final part of the paper addresses the future, and considers the potential of land use policies in the context of long run trends. 2. URBAN TRAVEL TRENDS 1 Urban travel trends are easily summarized. Car ownership and use is increasing, total travel is increasing, and both public transit use and non-motorized modes are decreasing. Car Ownership and Use Throughout the developed world, people own more private vehicles, use them more frequently, drive more miles, and are more likely to drive alone than ever before. The world ’s motor vehicle fleet has grown immensely over the past two decades. The total number of cars and trucks increased from 246 million in 1970 to 617 million in 1993, with most of the growth
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2 Figure 1 The World Motor Vehicle Fleet, 1970 - 1993 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 1970 1993 Non OECD Other OECD US occurring outside the US, as illustrated in Figure 1 (US Department of Transportation, 1996). Average annual growth rates in the motor vehicle fleet over this period are 2.6 percent for the US, 4.4 percent for other OECD countries, and 6.5 percent for non-OECD countries. Patterns of vehicle ownership are further illustrated in Table 1, which gives average annual
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This note was uploaded on 01/25/2011 for the course EE 1001 taught by Professor Panda during the Spring '10 term at National University of Singapore.

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land use planning and transport - LAND USE POLICY AND...

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