08-24-ARRA - CBO CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE SECOND AND D...

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Unformatted text preview: CBO CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE SECOND AND D STREETS , S . W . WASHINGTON , D . C . 20515 A R E P O R T Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output From April 2010 Through June 2010 August 2010 Pub. No. 4201 The Congress of the United States O Congressional Budget Office A R E P O R T CBO Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from April 2010 Through June 2010 August 2010 CBO Preface CBO T he American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) contains provisions that are intended to boost economic activity and employment in the United States. Section 1512(e) of the law requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to comment on reports filed by recipients of ARRA funding that detail the number of jobs funded through their activities. This CBO report fulfills that requirement. It also provides CBOs estimates of ARRAs overall impact on employment and economic output in the second quarter of calendar year 2010. Those estimateswhich CBO considers more comprehensive than the recipients reportsare based on evidence from similar policies enacted in the past and on the results of various economic models. Benjamin Page of CBOs Macroeconomic Analysis Division wrote the report under the supervision of Robert Dennis and William Randolph. Jared Brewster, Mark Lasky, and Joshua Shakin contributed to the analysis. Kate Kelly edited the report, Maureen Costantino prepared it for publication, Chris Howlett proofread it, Monte Ruffin printed it, and Linda Schimmel handled the distribution. This report, along with previous reports on the topic, is available on CBOs Web site ( www.cbo.gov ). Douglas W. Elmendorf Director August 2010 Contents CBO Measuring ARRAs Impact Using Recipients Reports 2 Measuring ARRAs Impact Using Economic Models and Historical Data 4 CBOs Modeling Approach 4 Change from CBOs Previous Estimates of the Impact of ARRA 8 Appendix: Evidence on the Economic Effects of Fiscal Stimulus 9 Tables 1. Estimated Macroeconomic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, 2009 to 2012 3 2. Estimated Output Multipliers of Major Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 6 CBO Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from April 2010 Through June 2010 I n February 2009, in response to significant weakness in the economy, lawmakers enacted the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The legisla- tions numerous spending and revenue provisions can be grouped into several categories according to their focus: B Providing funds to states and localitiesfor example, by raising federal matching rates under Medicaid, providing aid for education, and increasing financial support for some transportation projects; B Supporting people in needsuch as by extending and expanding unemployment benefits and increasing benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance...
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08-24-ARRA - CBO CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE SECOND AND D...

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