Ma10 - Qualitative Forecasting Methods Qualitative...

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Qualitative Forecasting Methods Qualitative forecasting methods are used when the situation is vague and little relevant data exist. For example, qualitative forecasting methods may be used to predict demand for new products or to predict the effect of a new technology. It does not rely on numbers or mathematical techniques. Rather, it relies on intuition and experience. There are four kinds of qualitative forecasting methods we will discuss: 1. Jury of executive opinion: involves bringing a small group of high-level experts together to estimate demand by working together and looking for a consensus, based on intuition and experience. It combines managerial experience with statistical models to achieve a relatively quick, rough estimate of demand. One problem with this kind of qualitative forecasting is that the managers may tend to agree with each other and think similarly (groupthink). Another problem is that a dominant personality might overwhelm the other experts. 2.
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This note was uploaded on 02/03/2011 for the course MAN 4504 taught by Professor Benson during the Spring '08 term at University of Florida.

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Ma10 - Qualitative Forecasting Methods Qualitative...

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