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Unformatted text preview: Changes in the trend can be due to changes in population, technology, age, culture, etc.--Seasonal component: A regular pattern of up-and-down fluctuations that occurs within a single year. Note that a season can be less than a year as well. --Cyclical component: A repeating up-and-down movement that takes place over multiple years. These movements are often affected by the business cycle, as well as political and economic fluctuations. There are often causal (or associative) relationships between the variables that explain a cyclical behavior.--Random component: No forecast is perfect, and there is always a difference between what we predict and what we actually observe. The residual fluctuation refers to the difference between what actually happened and what we predicted. These erratic, unsystematic fluctuations are caused by unforeseen events. They are usually of short duration and they do not repeat....
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- Spring '08