Unformatted text preview: Program Management II Management
Decision Making Outline Outline Identifying the Problem (or Identifying Opportunity) Opportunity) Gathering Facts Making the Decision Implementing and Evaluating Implementing the Decision the Decision Making Decision Decision making means selecting Decision one course of action from various alternatives alternatives ..the task of deciding pervades ..the the entire administrative organization as much as does the task of doing task ..at least 4 steps: identifying ..at the problem (or opportunity); gathering facts; making the decision; implementing and evaluating the decision evaluating Identifying the Problem (or Opportunity) Identifying Decision makers should establish Decision what kind of problem exists what Is Is the problem a pressing one or a dispensable one dispensable Is the problem really symptom Is masking the underlying problem or a root cause that contributes to actual problems problems Is the problem sui generis (one of a Is kind) or generic (one of a family of similar problem) similar Identifying the Problem (or Opportunity) Identifying Most problems are Most generic...they are part of a pattern of problems stemming from 1 underlying cause from administrators administrators often find themselves treating symptoms rather than establishing rules or principles that remove the root cause cause Gathering Facts Gathering Framing a decision—when the —when problem is accurately defined, the administrator then turns to framing the response Upper limits (limitations that determine how far the administrator can go can
permissibility available resources available time available previous commitments available information Framing a Decision Framing Lower limits—what at least must —what occur for the problem to be solved) of a decision of Limiting (strategic) factor in Limiting decision making-- the factor decision -whose control in the right form, in the right place, at the right time, will establish a new system of conditions which meets the purpose Consulting People Consulting Who should be consulted? Advisors People People who will be the most affected by the decision affected checking your facts with theirs and checking above all listening to what they have to say to Making the Decision—6 Techniques Techniques 1) Cost benefit analysis: iin an n 1) Cost era of scarcity, interest in weighing cost against benefits rises rises Common elements— measurement of costs and measurement benefits, the distributional impacts, the discount factor, and the decision rules Measuring Costs and Benefits Measuring Real costs (resources withdrawn), benefits Pecuniary costs, benefits (come about due to changes in relative prices that occur as the economy adjusts itself to the provision of the public service—gains to some, losses to others) to Direct (related to main project objectives) and indirect (externalities, spillovers) indirect Tangible (can measure in $$) and intangible intangible Distribution and Discounts Distribution Distributional impacts—who actually —who benefits; what is the distribution of program benefits among beneficiaries; who should pay the program costs; who actually does pay? Discount factor—projects take place over —projects time and how the analysis treats this time element is critical—future value compared to today’s value opportunity cost—lost opportunity to —lost engage in other activities, alternatives due to selection due Decision Rules Decision Simple project that involves a yes/no Simple decision decision Choice between 2 mutually exclusive Choice projects projects Objectives other than efficiency Select the level at which to provide Select projects projects 2. Multiobjective Models 2. Useful in situations in which Useful there are moral goals or when one or two goals cannot be quantified; 3 steps quantified; Select evaluation criteria Decide on the relative importance Decide of each criterion selected of Assess each alternative in terms Assess of how well it achieves the criteria of 3. Decision Analysis 3. Decision is not viewed as Decision isolated because today’s decision depends on the ones we shall make tomorrow Payoff Payoff matrix—the array of payoffs resulting from various decision alternatives decision Decision tree—used for decision Decision situations that occur in sequence situations 4. Systems Analysis 4. Forces us to look at problems as systems; Forces assemblies of interdependent components; 4 basis steps: basis problem formulation (detailed description of the task and identification of important variables and their relationships) their modeling (going from the real world problem to the abstract world of the modeler) the analysis and optimization (find best strategy for resolving the problem given—simulation or sensitivity analysis) implementation (results determined from the model are translated as a set of action to the real world) real 5. Operations Research 5. Scope is narrower than systems Scope approach approach concerned concerned with problems that can be represented by mathematical models to be optimized; models with relatively small concerned concerned problems problems 6. Group Decision Making Techniques Techniques Advantages—bring together a —bring broader perspectives for defining the problem, more knowledge and information, easier to implement (buy-in) Disadvantages—time consuming, —time expensive, lead to compromise solutions or reduction of valuable dissenting opinions (groupthink), no clear focus for responsibility if things go wrong; When to Use a Group When Problem is uncertain, complex, or has the Problem potential for conflict potential Problem requires interagency or intergroup Problem cooperation Problem and its solution have important Problem personal and organizational consequences personal There are significant, but not immediate There deadline pressures widespread acceptance and commitment widespread are critical to successful implementation are Improving Group Decision Making Making Nominal group technique— equalizes participation, equalizes Devil’s advocate Dialectal inquiry Brainstorming Implementing and Evaluating the Decision the Program Evaluation Define the Goals Translate Goals into Measurable Translate Indicators Indicators Collect Data Compare Data Decision Making in the Real World World Strategic Misrepresentation in Strategic Estimating Costs Estimating Biases in Human Decision Biases Making Making Limitations of Systems Analysis ...
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- Spring '07
- Decision Making, administrator, Decision Making Decision, Program Management II Management, People Consulting