9.Fertility_cont__10

9.Fertility_cont__10 - 9 Fertility(cont Ronald Lee...

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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 1 Ronald Lee Econ/Demog 175 February 16, 2010 9. Fertility (cont.)
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 2 Announcements PS3 will be posted by the end of the day. It is due on Tuesday, 2/23. The grading scale for PS1 is posted on bSpace. Sections will be held at regular times this week. They will focus on working through the marriage and fertility models in prep for PS3. Aaron Chalpin has OH right after class today; otherwise OH are as in syllabus. Note jobs/internships are posted under resources on bSpace.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 3 Readings for next Tuesday National Research Council (1997) The New Americans: Economic, Demographic and Fiscal Effects of Immigration (National Academy Press). James Smith and Barry Edmonston, eds. pages 107-115. In your Reader: 246-254. “Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2008”, Dept of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, in your Reader pp.255-259 . Note: the January 2009 update of this report is available on bSpace/Resources/Readings/UnDocUpdate_Jan_2009. I suggest you read this latest version, but the one in your reader is OK too, almost identical.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 4 Lecture plan for today Special guest presentation by Harrison Dekker, data librarian How to find data sources for your term paper (see last question on problem set 3). Some applications of fertility theory (cont.) iClicker fertility survey – GSIs, please avg Quantity-Quality Tradeoff Theory (Becker) Outlook for fertility in future (Fehrer et al)
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 5 Finish VOT theory with some applications--discuss
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 6 1. Quote from newspaper story on fertility policy in China (c. 2003) “Others who want an additional child pay stiff fees. In Shanghai, the fee is three times the combined annual salary of the parents. In Zhejiang, it is 20% of the parents’ combined salary for five years. In Qinghai Province, the Government has added a carrot to the stick, offering smaller families special low-interest business loans.”
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 7 Q. When a fee is imposed on each additional birth, we expect fertility to decline because: A. The substitution effect is bigger than the income effect. B. The income effect is bigger than the substitution effect. C. The income and substitution effect both lead to lower fertility. D. All of the above.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 8 Diagramming the effect of the fees in China (previous slide) Parental consump tion, x n max Number of children, n n* x* c c x x Fe qp wt Y wT n p p e x + + + = -
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 9 The couple’s budget constraint with child earnings Parental consump tion, x n max Number of children, n x x c c c qp wt Y x p y wT n p + + = - - y c is child earnings
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 10 The couple’s budget constraint with taxes on both workers Parental consump tion, x n max Number of children, n ( 29 ( 29 1 1 c c x x Y w T qp w t x n tax tax p p - + - + = -
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