promotion - U.S. Navy Promotion and Retention by Race and...

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U.S. Navy Promotion and Retention by Race and Sex Amos Golan, American University William Greene, New York University Jeffrey M. Perloff, University of California, Berkeley January, 2010 Abstract The Navy’s promotion-retention process involves two successive decisions: The Navy decides whether an individual is selected for promotion, and then, conditional on the Navy’s decision, the sailor decides whether to reenlist or leave the Navy. Rates of promotion and retention depend on individuals’ demographic and other characteristics, wars and economic conditions and factors that the Navy policy makers can control. Using estimates of these decision-making processes, we examine two important public policy questions: Do Navy promotion and retention rates differ across race and sex? Can the Navy alter its promotion and other policies to better retain sailors, or do war and civilian labor market conditions determine retention? Key Words: promotion, retention, labor, sex, race JEL Classification Codes: J45, J7 We thank the office of Navy Personnel Research, Studies and Technology (NPRST) for giving us permission to use the data, for replying to all of our questions and for granting us permission to publish this paper. NPRST is not responsible for our findings or conclusions.
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U. S. Navy Promotion and Retention by Race and Sex Today’s Navy wants to give all its sailors an equal chance of promotion. However, as individuals make judgments that affect promotion decisions, it is possible that minorities and females are treated unequally. Because the retention of sailors depends on their probability of promotion, unequal treatment may affect which sailors stay in the Navy. Given our nation’s military activities in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Navy’s leaders are concerned whether its policies will enable it to retain a large proportion of its sailors. We investigate whether there are racial or sex differences in rates of promotion in the career paths of the enlisted individuals and the degree to which Navy policies affect the retention of sailors. To investigate these issues, we estimate a two-step decision model using a recursive, bivariate probit specification. First, the Navy decides whether to promote sailors based on their current and past performance and the Navy’s current needs. Second, sailors decide whether to remain in the Navy or leave, conditional on whether they are offered a promotion and other Navy policies such as whether they are assigned sea duty. Whether individuals are promoted and whether they stay depends on Navy policies, individuals’ characteristics, economic conditions in the civilian labor market, and conditions of war or peace. To estimate the model, we use data on virtually all Navy enlisted personnel from January 1997 through May 2008.
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promotion - U.S. Navy Promotion and Retention by Race and...

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