TP%233_f08 - CE 3102 Fall 2008 Thought Problem 3 Bayes...

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CE 3102 Fall 2008 Thought Problem 3 Bayes’ Theorem You recently started a new job as a construction engineer for a small design/construction firm. Past experience on your company’s job sites indicates that compaction practices are flawed. About 5 percent of the time soil fills are under-compacted. A portable device is used to test the compaction of fill on our company’s large earthmoving projects. Unfortunately, the particular device in question has some reliability problems. Your device indicates an under-compaction of soil on only 95% of all improperly compacted fills that are tested. Furthermore, you device indicates an under-compacted soil on 10% of all properly compacted fills that are tested. What is the probability that a soil, which the device indicates to be under-compacted, is
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TP%233_f08 - CE 3102 Fall 2008 Thought Problem 3 Bayes...

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