notes march 3rd

notes march 3rd - tournmament o Or might only analyze the I...

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3/3/10 comm402 CHAPTER 4 Choice o First of the “basic models” of human behavior o Applies to anything you can construe as an individuals choice Decision, outcome uncertain Value Probablitity Theorized rational choice process being modeled o Examine all possible plans o Identify all possible outcomes o Value each outcome o Estimate probability of each outcome o Choose outcome with highest expected value (value X probability) Probability o Otol decimals or percentages o Avoid reasoning error of assuming that all outcomes are equally likely Lottery: 2 outcomes, 50/50% chance of winning o Gamblers fallacy” being “due” for a red card, etc. ∑=sum Expected value value X probability Nice to have a common metric, like $ for value EV= ∑PiVi (for I possible outcomes) o Might analyze all possible outcomes to get total pay off, asin the total ____ for a golf
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Unformatted text preview: tournmament o Or might only analyze the I pay offs if you take job #2 of 4 choices Decision tress merely graphical aid to seeing which outcome has maximum EV o Draw otuu the whole tree, including all the contingent branches o Start collapsing to the left, until you end with only the branches reprepseting first choice o Largetst EV predicts first choice Continue the process o Given the first choice collapse back to the next decision (i.e second choice) Alternatively, can just multiply probabilities along each branch and list the product at the end of the final branch point o If a thing can happen N ways add up all N probabilities to estimate its likelyhood o Equal finality in GSTcan get same place in different ways...
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This note was uploaded on 02/07/2011 for the course COMM 402 taught by Professor Hample during the Spring '10 term at Maryland.

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notes march 3rd - tournmament o Or might only analyze the I...

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