notes march 10th

notes march 10th - 3/10/10 Choice o o Using the models...

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Choice o Using the models without perfect information o A decision tree may be useful even with out numbers Ex of the city planner working on traffic problems The decision tree makes factors explicit and helps sharpen thinking Choice o Sometimes can cancel out unknown values in a decision tree Eg, if same unknown value exists in two paths that you’re choosing between, its actual quantity doesn’t matter o Sometimes can take very low (but unknown) probabilities and just set them to zero [ignore them] (unless payoffs are astonishingly high—high utitlity) Choice o Should I vote? Example with no numbers at all o Simple algebra generates a nice model Should vote when election will be close Should vote when perceive big diff between the candidates Shouldn’t vote when its costly or difficult to vote Choice o Assumptions of the choice model (pp 137-138) Full list of alternative actions Can map all the consequences of each action Can value each outcome
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notes march 10th - 3/10/10 Choice o o Using the models...

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