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Lecture_27_future - Exponential growth Amount added with...

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1 1 Exponential growth: Amount added with time proportional to how much is there. Characterized by constant doubling time 2 Human population until 1970’s = super-exponential Doubling time decreased with time (number of children born and surviving to reproductive age increased)
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2 3 4 Simple system: reach carrying capacity smoothly
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3 5 More complex system: population oscillates about carrying capacity 6 World population: 6,662,966,161 US Census Bureau report for 14:28 GMT (EST+5) Apr 22, 2008 http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html Carrying capacity: Most estimates 12-15 billion people (total appropriation of land primary productivity)
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4 7 Billions of people Global “Carrying Capacity” 8
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5 9 10
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6 11 Populations in transition: I. High birth and death rate, little pop growth II. High birth rate but declining death rate, rapid growth III. Birth rate declines, pop growth declines Graphics from U. Maryland, Dept. Meteorology 12 100 (10 2 ) years - Global human population stabilizes – Agriculture and water use maximized (how??
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