Earth+the+Sequel - CHAPTER 1 A Naw Industrial Rgemlution...

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Unformatted text preview: CHAPTER 1 A Naw Industrial Rgemlution mmluticn is: (m the lmrimn: a whalesaia transfbrma» tio'n 0f the warm economy and; the Way people live. ifhis revolutiun will depend, on industrial technfiogy— capimE-imensiva, shmfehin«thefigmtmd ifldflSEIiESmflfld will, 3111:1653? Certainly create the: great formats of the: twentywfirsrt: «:rentury; But this" new \Endmstriai revolutima home 3. mare importam p‘m’miser wearing, the world against the dangers Gf gbbal warnflng; It is deveiaping amici the paliiimfl, emnomic, and tec.hrmk3gic;efii aquiva 318:}: {3? firm paiffiéct Smrm: wafidwidfi caficc‘zffi gififiut 61% {fat}?- mom, threat: of greanimgse gases, gmwing reaiizztim: that: we; I an: prisoners of pctmleum—stt‘age m the unstable; samefimcs hastiie, regimes that camml the suppfies of crude 0i! and natuml gas—~3nd, fimfly; huge amt} accalemfing advances; in technalagy that 11131;: pas‘sibfe unprccadtmmd, breakthroughs; in how we make 3m} use enm'gy. This bank. is about: the kinds of invemmrs who; wifi gmbifim Gut climate, ganamté: 3119:731qu awnmmfi: gmwth, and save the pifinet. It is 3130 abaut the near certainty that unless the United Stams acts as 3; nation {:63 give: may? inncvamrs 3hr": finance :0 cam- pme fairiy in the. wafld’s biggegt businegs, they xvii], fail to avert the crisis in. time; 4 EARTH: THE SBQUEI, a BIT m: cmmwmn HISTORY will explain haw US. leadership can solve (ha mom dire envimnmental problem GE our tiIflCSP—“hflw coliectively we can head off'catastmphe, cream “with and jobs: and enhance? Qur Seturity. Thirty years raga? scientists and fishermen began noticing a star~ tiing dC‘CEifii‘f in animal and plant fife: in lakes and Faressts thmughaut the eastern Grated States, In 1981' the Nationai Academy 0f Sci“ cnccs issued a mpsrt ducumcnfinsg the cause: gulfur diaxidc ($03) politician. Originating mostiy {mm cud-fired powar plants. suifizr dioxide was causing min and mow to turn- acidim and that amid rain was kifling aquatic lift: arid damaging fareszs. Thffi discovery sparkeé bitter échzzte ova haw to mducc sulfur diaxidc: mfissions and 3!: whafi cmt.Thc key imminent than mafia abie far tackling acici rain was the 19??“ Ciean Air Act, which had established a “Command arid contra? appwach m 211‘? poflutian. Not oniy was awry umvly buiit clccwic gcncrating unit required [0 meet a unifetm ceifing 011 its emissians mm¥ but: it had :0 d9 50 by instafling a “scruhherfi’ Ctr flue—gas dcmlfimization uxxit‘ an expensive piacc a? capital equipment that added {ens of milfiens of deflars: to the cost of the powar piani:.1t didnt mites if 3 902%: piant could cut emissiam masts cheapiy by burning simmer 6:333 13:“ by making its; baiier mom efiiciam~§t stifi had :0 install a: scrub- be]: Mcanwfiiie, (Mimi? cmisxmns cuntmucii m rim: aid piantfi; wem iargaiy exempted and] they {nodgmézedl am} new piants, em": ifin coznpfianm with the an, sail} added new amissiams t0 the mmi. Tht: an«sizcwfits--afi sakucian Failcci :0 {aka advantage affixes: 30631 knowledge and experience 0591:1111: operators. It actually finpeded quick adoption of new technoiogies. And it nude 2hr: whale pro- cess far mere expensive than necessary: game mistiag planm mulé A REE? INDUSTRIAL REYDLETIGN 5 cut: pollutidn cheaply but: wzamn‘t 35km {0, while ether plants; spent. a farmne m compiy. By the 19805, Environménml Dfiffifififi Fund had balmy}, the: ind. in. argumg fora difi‘emnt appraach.The key wag to mabflize the market: 5:) make far daeper cut; in pallutiera and at much lawer cost. Durifig the: 1988 preszidemial electiczn, stifling p‘EEESSflI‘C? by New Hampshire environmentalists elevated acid min as an issue: :11} can” didatcs had t0 address. Soon after Georgfi HW Bush was cchtcd president, Envimnmenml Defense Fund pffifsidt‘tfit Fred Krupp met with Whit: House cmmscl C. Boydcn Gray. He outfintd For Gray how the president’s campaign pledge is curb acid rain maid 'ba fixififled using the waders first: “mnissinns cap and trading system? He arguw that dim p‘rt‘rsidém: mufid ht: mare: ambitiu‘m on. thfi‘ anvi—r mmnenm} ggals whim fitifl gang-ring busirmfis 3:1}:me After dcz~ ens ofmeeatingsy the Bush adminismden czmbmmfi Emimnmmm} Dafeme Fund’s; proposal and submitmd fit to Cfingrass, whichmlcd fifty Swami" Gem‘gfi Mitchcli QEMaim and Representatives, Emmy Wmnim of California and john Dingtzfi (If Michiganmwmte it into ti}: Chan Air Act of 11990. The law started with thc scitntific bmwm 11m, It mquired a 50 perCitnt cut in sulfur dioxide amissions {mm the rum} voiu'me: raiaased by foggil {Em—firm power piant§~the minimum rfiducm tier: that atmospheric scifimists baiievcé was necssgaw to Eagin bringing Eakcs and rivera back to lifhn Et sat a permanent upper iimitma capwon these trmisaicmst {haw ciiv‘vmd up {hf quantity (in mm) cf‘poflufian waived wmng thfi pmwr plants. Even as new 5912mm: 0f paflution came cm Iinef the cap W35; ratchatcd 7 dawn, over time so {hat the com] 3111mm: of pa'llutiwn fall. That declining cap, guaranteeing that anvimnmcntai targstg wamid be mist; was unprwgmittnttzd. But: it: was the ascend part Cf {he law—— the cmisgimns-tmding systcmwthat canmlatcfiy cransfbr'med the paradigm, that had historically pittéé mivimnmemmlism against ecoumnic growth. ' The trading mechanism allowed 3 pawer plant that cat its sulfur diaxizie pollution, more than required to Sell they: extra allowgnses, and permitted plzum that muld mt): find 3 better way in cut their own muissions to?) buy filtem. A new commmfifififi nzarlzztt was barn. A plant that canld béat its; emissions target haul 3 profitable new asset m Still, and financial incentive: to dex'filap ways :9 cu: amisw signs even furtherfflm buyer had the flexibility to find the chit-zip» est: way to: meet the cap; it was now the power plant opethr—‘mt zlw regulath—dwlm deaided haw to intagrate emisgions cantml' inm an, overall ln-usinegs plan. Twe manths after the law was paged, Richard Clark, than CBC) 0f Pacific Gas and Elecuicfimexica‘s largest publicly awn-ed utility; 521:: MM to Fwd Krupp at 21 (fiflflfif for the: Pmsident’s Cammissimi on Environmfinml Quality. ”When you were talking to the meal» dent abaut this cap—and—n'adc 13de frankly thought yau‘c‘i loss it?" he saicl t0 ficd‘ “But flaw that there’s a way to make mane-y {mm cutting pallutéom l, have a dozen pmpmals, for emisa‘iunx reductions from my own cmpluyeeg on the shop floor, and a dozen more fmm outside mnsultzmtfiu’l‘hzé envimmmzm isn‘t: jam 3 mmmy luierwit’fi 21 pmfit cement l haw: ta admit it’s a powarfill law" One cmnpauy {hat jumpcci am the: 2mm? marl-2m: appmtmity was General Electric {(313}, wlmse scrubber technongymin the: almcnce Qt‘strict caps cm cn'tigsiG-ns or any rewardi far everacliiewrsmhad m3: acixrancecl much slum passage: of the 1977 law: Far years, GE had been selling clumsy units: that €103;ng up so fi'equenrly that. operawrs; haul {'0 build twu paralletl scrubbers it) make sure um: was always running Eli Gal. whom curremt. arisen-cutting wmk is; Featured in Chapter 8 was; then at GE Envimnmental Servites! and he: recalls how quickly that all changed once the capwandmtmde mechanism became: law. (3E ”lgggan dcvming gerious resaurceg {£3 clan—up- technalcrgy, and Gai’s 1:321:11 haci its brtakthmugh: it: devised a scrubber that turned the sulfur dimdde into gypsum: which (21068 not gum up the warks 31111 is 11391179,: marketable pméuct: Eiscwhrrr, the; 11.3w law impirrd innwarive: thinking abmet 10W- EECh 50111210113. Far decades, conventienal wisdmn held that law— sulfixr 12:21:11 from Wynming mum new be: mixed 11:11:11 high-sulfur c0211 {rem Appalachiahar Mast, 171m: in quantities large: enaugh to signifirrantly reduce: sulfur dioxide: 1311115510115. The: MEW incentiwr made it worthwhile: to take: :1 second look at that belief—mam} bribe: 10mg, rfiiexmists and mgimrrrs pmvrd £111: crimwcmimm wig— dum Wrong. Capital and ingenuity were: sufidenly flaming to 52:11:11:- tfiiuns b01111 high tech and lcrwV far three: was profit to» be made. Within ”five year; US: Militia; axestnrissinne 3'0 pm‘mnr 1111:1111: than the law required, ervezn while: marmaflng 6161;111:111: genrmtmn {mm c9511 by 61:81 percent and rerdrming mmfi dartri-ciiry prices. 132111”- ring that grams partied: the: LES: acmmmy gmw by a 11631€11§ 5»? perrmr, Dim predirriam that the: pmgmm 111211211131. {1311:3111th weer man: than $6 1311111311 :1 yerzrr primed 1111:1132 «:13? bares; race-11:1: 511111135 peg the actual c031: at b-fitween $51.1 and $1.8 131111011. A1113 by 217196; 561311 [“1513 were: darumerrrting ciecreared sulfates in fidimndrck, 1:11:25, impaired wisibflity in 11311011a1 path, and widerprrad benfifits; 1:0 11111113111 :11 talthfi‘ T H 13 c A P ,, :1 re [3 ._ 1‘ R11 ’13, I; M 13 c 1-1 A N I 3 M 112111 urfieashed the: 111051: EJOWEFfilf rmnmnic {firm in [116 wéfld in the: sander: {21f 6111151.: mmneefiztzfl ngs: entrepmncuréai capiralisr11.The chapters 1:11.21: 161w 113w drenamrmtr £11211 the: 331116 mark-e21: farce: can be: brought {£1 bear c111 22hr: prabiem (if $131331 warming; ‘1‘“ By than? time the: pragmm 1.»; 111111,: Carried cm: in 22,110! it veil} P‘fiiVidE mam than $1111} 1121111011 in 5111111211 11631:}: 311:1 Envimnmrnmi bruefim, prcwnmxg nunwmmdwtks, hoggrimfizaeium. and emergmrgy mam vista whiie ramming {he winding 01‘ natural ‘ ’Stfilni As wail 35 markem have worked over the yearswpurrmg the pmductjon (3f cicctmnics of higher and higher quafity at Emvcr sad iower prices, for examplemthey have {gilt-d {he enviren» men: because they have failed :0 atcmmt for the cast of pollu» tion. No cost attaches ta the giobal warming polluticn emitted by power planta factories, and cars, and ac: benefit flows to chow whn mdncc that pollut‘imfil‘he lagfndary venture capitaiis: jflhi} Deerr, an early {under 0f Googie and Amazommm (and a sup~ parts: of Environmental Defcnsa Fund; Ann Doerr, his wife, $5 an the bond of tru‘stacsfi puts it this way: “Every singit’: day; we dump 79 million tens ofcarban diaxidfi into mgr mimospbm like it’s an {JPCI} sewer, iikfi it’s entiraly free to dc) than [2’3 really harci m change comumer héhaviar Whm cofisumers don’t krmw haw much their hehavmr mszsf’ The 50123130er is, at its care, si:11ple.The US. Caugmgs must set a kgaf 3.an smadily deciining limit 011 globa} warming pollution. The allawances wifi be dixwicd up amang emitteri, or auctimwd by the government re raise revenuesbflar 3mm: combination {if thé‘ two. Polity-{m who emit more will need :0 pay far the extm p01— imien mductiuns achiwed by others; {E1055 who can rfiducc globaf warming paliution further will pmfic by 5311ng they: redumiimg in an cap-m} n'mrkct.We can, in, shmt, use (hf: pewer 0f the: market. system to Climb out of the hole created by flawed t1“1iir§:ets.W¢: car: {3323* a pa: 0-2" gala} :0 Show wha devglz}? flaw way; :3 gemedzs’: carbonmfree: enargy and new teahzmlcgies t0 mmave (:35an Eitmz «our smekesmcks and atmmphem we can charmei the full range (if human impulmfimingenuity, i‘dealisa‘zh ambiticnwimo undfiing the damage and healing cam 1313:3312 America’s greatmt Strength has. aiway's bean its boumfleis capacity fur invengiam In the wards 0? one: mergy wtreprcnwr,“Thc beauty nf'this wuntry is that every time we’re pressed m the wail we come up with new thingy-«we becmnc the most £11231in force in time world.” .5. w c. I V! E N 15 N U '1'} C H T I M E, 1:13;}? afthe tachnolflgies described in this 13001: might ripen 01*: their Own. Em: time is the my: thing w: Vivian’s have; Late in 200?, scientists noted that emissians of green-m home gases were gmwiug considerably faster than emulated? They alga dmmatlcally revised, dmmwarcl, their Estimates of haw much pailmima the: planet sz tulamtelThe new numbers mean, that we must mm: sim‘aply stap Elli: anuual gmwtl] G‘f cmissimm lrlfiirrt’dwids, Haitians maxi an erasfssfcrm in lmffmmr {its next fifty years. E mail: the?! gin-ah the Um'fed States will imam to was: sm‘ssiwzs {I}: 13’ vafffflf‘ifia The scientific consmlms is that: imam“ will Chang: the aarth within :1 few decadcs into a place unlike any aver inhabited by humans. ”Business as usual will open {hrs dam to catastmphe: Plead» ing and the dislacatmn 0f millions of peogle in: South Asials vast; dams; chmnic draught and mass nmlnmtr‘ishmctm in Afiiiaa; wild“: Ems? deadly heat wwas, and cruastal (lessrmctima in flit“: Ufiiwd Salsas; tl‘m cxtinctien (sf half the wcj'rlcl‘s {Whig specks US gmwmls warm at“ unprscefienmd wavvss Qf‘rflfllgfit‘fi, anal {sf digests {<3 Harlem} and glubal security from wars 0W: I‘ssoumes., In ilk: context afsuch all,“ mmplaugiblc sccnarius. the whalesalc Iffiim’emmn of {lm way we makes and list: micrgy is W: a. ChOiCifi but a masts? 0f survival. Securing gut planet: against calamity will regain: a mmnd indusr trial revalmimj Vs SVVreaping as that efisctad a cmmr}! age} ling; the likes mf'Tha-mas Edisom Henry Fatal, and jahn El. Rackaf‘eller. W's will I’lfi‘fld 3:0 ham-ass cit'nczfgy {mm film sum: the an-rcs, livfing Dr‘gzmu mass, and the: lmat ma beamed in the glamflkr: will mu} m reinvent: anmmwbilas dean up sums-10113 fmm the. iimz'mnsé: and rapidly L 7" Ssclah,e+rs Paula and Rabat Sflacfiww midprlnuzmu Malawi-“sky‘s Cuban Mitiggtmn Enitiatiw had pmjm’md umissicms 0f 7? billion mm (shaman fur the was 200%: Ensrcash emissions finr that year mfgmssecf El biliism was. Current trends sugges: ez-Ilissécms am mugging; wan the wofst scenams autlnwé by the: Intcrgnvem1nmm? Patter-l cm Cli— mate Changc. cmeme~W~m*MwwwmmflW—QWWWijmmfimpww~‘m _, wwr—Mwmgywwmn vM'Wm‘W """" "‘ gmwing c031 infrastrutzturc, uxc the energy WI: have far more effi— ciently and put an and t0 atypical dafomstatian.What will became apparent: 011 these pagers is that we 62:} achiwc this revuiution, but 0111;; if we make it a fair game. No single {echnalagy wifl stop global warming, but there is a silver bullet: a cap on carbon that will launch all these solutions into thé rmingtrcam. T H iii m N 0 VATS R s Y 6) U w I 1. L M 13 ET in the chapters that: {GROW an? wildly inventive and ambitieus. Risk—takiflg is chair faveritc sport. “disruptive” their fiworitc woré‘ Many actuafi'}: relish the pmspecs 0f going mp against: the“: biggfist companies in the wmid. As an undergraéuate at MIT, Nfiffi Renningarm—nmv a chemicafi engineer at: Amyfls Biocechnoiogies~supp[amented his inccme by“ playiag {m that univergity‘s icgcndary biackjack mam, whme explcits were chmnicEctd in the 20%}? hawk Bringfrzg Baum rim Home. Ht: {acme Amyris’g chaflengfis with the same spirit he bmught m the“: msifinasf‘ifyau take educamd risks, figum Cam; Wham ya-u’re advantaged, and play to $11938? advantages!” he: $33,114:, “3701: can beat the Imam.” Tfic invegmrs whu fimd they: imremms arc jug: as certain at” their power to makr: hismric changes. Sificon V3316? leadém fike john Docrr and Vinnd Kfihasia, 22 cofmunder M3111": Micmsggtexm Whfi is; new aim a majur versmrs cafgimligt1 have shiftaei immense memes?» into cleannmergy tachnamgiéfi (Dacrr mils ii: the: “mothcr at“ 33,} [I'z;irkc£:5”).Whem Others 1:101: at tht: trivéai markfit peaetratiun afi say, scalar technoingy and See wiéiencs, that 3%an energy wili remain 11.1,arg2‘nal, {ham immstcrfi SEC :1 nifis‘fiiVfi nmrkict ()ppt’flflll‘litYl m mmt China‘; stat/3d gm] to der’im 10 percent 05:3 electricity from renew“ able saurres (H017 wanting large hydmelectric projects) by the war 202i} wiil require €32 gigawatts Gf‘ekctriciwmmme than two year: {3? output {fem 2111 thr: salar—ecefi factories in the: warid mday; Yet they aim knew that whether they mccead a: fail iffipfifldfi ultimateiy' On what we demand Siam our pcfjtica] leadersThe cur“ rent rules of the. game are steeply stacked against the new-energy entrepreneurs. Even the kw: ideas Win faik in a COH‘CE’SE a5 rigged as the $5 trillion energy business is taday: Whfie iinnavamrs devefm oping semfeonducmm and. the: Imaging gm: to Play in a virtualw ape-n field, (:1sz energy immvamrs are up agaiimt the? mast pow» crfui mummies in; the: worli companies that have: spent dccadfes successfufiy pushing for subsidies, trade agreements, and regulatory , structures that favor their business. Oil and gas mmpamm spenci 5mm: $60 mflEiD'n a 5mm? fabbying far pnficiets that (war Ehfiir indus,» tries and receive, according m the US. GavermlwmAccounmbflw in: Office, benefits W’Orth 36: billion a year. Incmuhem: mmpanies comml pipelines and L‘mmmissimi grids; the high mm: 1:}? upgrad— ing and connécting m the grid can, Strangle a scanrup mnewablev ancrgy piarxt.Vflnéum capitaligt Emmy mbczuw» that crack year tin: {Edam guvernmem dmom jug: $1 bfiiian m mmarch 6:111 mnewm abie mamas ofencrgymlcss than EmanMflbfi. cams fun a unglc day. Ewing: imgmrtzxant, pwficymakctm arc: only just baginnjng t0 canifimt the huge. hiddan subsidy fer fogsil £13615: that; we financial accmmt ‘ is taken 05th:? use 0f the 3!:n‘105phcn: 33 a dqmp’mg £5111qu for the: pafiumnm that muse glam} warming. Though America’s rcprasmtatives! ham been aware 0f glam} warming since 1988, whw Smamr A} Gore hem the EETS‘E C0n- gressisnai hearings an. the tiam than beginning {:13 mung; {mi}; in recent manths has the US. Caugmss diggflaycd Kasai inn-3mg: m addressing crmmtt: Change. Sam: at? ther Itzgixsiative pmpwsalfi are: hQHGW‘ gmadstgmding; {351mm wmfld 1211::th :e-ngmlingfu} amen. ”mum: mm 171211133 bad way: cyf‘n‘mvéng thrwaul 5mm harm intiuding mummimg to give: taxpayer? mans? {(53 the: bummsxcx with the: but lebbyismfhc: huge {Meta} subsidiés for mm ethanol. for instancm an: chiefly testammlt t0 tbs puwer (If the: agribusinmg giant firchmf Dammit; LMidla‘nd and 06716;: agrifiuimml inmmsta The hismry {3f thc development of wind and solar pcwerwm booming in times 0f high oil priceg anti subsicfies, baiting when those disappcarmrcinfbrccs the neccssity For lung-mun policies that, ($0 net require Washington to pick winnera but that allow the United States" has: handécappepwthe markfit, freed 0f existing Sammie sen (mt: wlm wall}; can deliver the goeds. Much of the US. busincss mmnmnity has already embraced Elm: V‘icw.thu the: C‘falil’omia lcgiglamrr: was debating passage 9f the nation’s first cmnomymwidfi cap an carban emissions! Clem—tech pmpmnents- effectively cauntercd Claims that carbon legislation wanld dezvas~ tam the economy, by detailing the immense Opportunities fm job gmwth. profits, and internazianal competitivcnflss that wauld by? unleashed by the pmper regulatory fi‘amewoz’k They reminded lawmakétrs that technolagical progress ciriven by immvatian is raspunsibltfi far fully half" the growth a? the: US, Kunming: Thar? 52>qu alliei in a number of the caunmfs wmklmme mmpanies, which Rated that mar taking action wauld almcsi surely haw: dirt: consequenma Fm: their busincgs. In the spring of .2007 can leading US. mmpanieg, including Ecncral Elamrlchlma, Caterpillar, ancl Duke Energy, called {ti-r a natimml mp cm carbun cmlssimts: in the mumhs that fella-wed they wen: joined lay dazcm ofFamme 500 mmpanies, including the big three US. ammmzkers and Shell Gilfimi :25 California and states in the: Nartheast and Nartluvfist Irmved ahead with caps {in sat-bun cmifismms, Elm naiimfs 171051? innovative campanies begin opamtifig as if z: fbdeml mtlmn cap were already in place. As it Switcht’id cm :3 lfi—nmgzzwatt 503m“ array 34: itS Silicml Vallfly lwadquartem—w—zlle: EISE 4:}? LGGU megawatts of rcntzwahlc encffgy it ultimately plans to pmducamGQGgl-e ammummci that it wamld “set an internal cast 0f carban valuntarily by using :2 ‘slmdow prim,” the thematiml cast «of carbon that we Expect under a. regulamry markijhis will allaw us [(3 nmkrfi operazimzzl dwisiuns as ifzzherf: W'fil‘ff already 2; prim: on ii NEW :EHEIUSTRI-i, REVQJLUTICJN I3 $311361}. That: in turn 6.113131%. 1:15 134:: ‘fiiidfléifl: 1:111: firm: amt: {if pmwr as {me 0f the key critaria, in aim Sckiaifimfl Em £3111 dam camerawa «:95: mm: yet: being mmgflzfid by 1:111: market, 13:11: @111: that W111 scam I}; hemmed“ 1:13:11 thmugh mrbmz lagfilafionfhés 1:5; 3:11 impmmnt 3:001, 150 millet Eh»: financial risk that: mu: ezzmrgy immtmema {73:02, and whim {swimming pawar eprticma, it wiii 3.150 put r-enmvahk exwrgy ml 3. 1W5]; 1}anng fiel...
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