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Markov+Model+Assignment+Workbook

Markov+Model+Assignment+Workbook - Prevention No prevention...

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Per person Life-years Cost Prevention 14.86 7086.31 No prevention 14.47 2445.99 ICER Difference 0.39 4640.33 $11,971.66
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Transition probabilities - NO PREVENTION Transition to/State at t+1 Well Sick Dead Transition from Well 0.95 0.04 0.01 State at t Sick 0.05 0.90 0.05 Dead 0.00 0.00 1.00 Prevention reduces the probabilities of sickness or death by effectv. Base case cprev 400 400 csick 750 750 cdead 1000 1000 effectv 0.85 0.85 discount rate 0.05 0.05
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Per person Life-years Cost Prevention 14.86 7086.31 No prevention 14.47 2445.99 ICER Difference 0.39 4640.33 $11,971.66
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Initial cohort = 1000 people, age 40 Cycle Well Sick Dead Life-years Costs check 1 1000 0 0 1000 0 1000 2 950 40 10 943 38095 1000 3 905 74 22 888 60771 1000 4 863 103 34 834 77599 1000 5 825 127 48 783 89703 1000 6 790 147 63 734 98010 1000 7 758 164 78 688 103282 1000 8 728 178 94 644 106143 1000 9 701 189 110 602 107105 1000 10 675 198 126 563 106586 1000 11 651 206 143 526 104928 1000 12 629 211 160 491 102408 1000 13 608 215 177 458 99251 1000 14 589 218 193 428 95637 1000 15 570 220 210 399 91714 1000 16 552 221 227 372 87598 1000 17 536 221 244 347 83380 1000 18 520 220 260 323 79133 1000 19 505 219 276 301 74914 1000 20 491 217 292 280 70767 1000 21 477 215 308 261 66724 1000 22 464 213 323 243 62809 1000 23 451 210 339 226 59039 1000 24 439 207 354 210 55426 1000 25 428 204 368 196 51978 1000 26 417 201 383 182 48697 1000 27 406 197 397 170 45584 1000 28 395 194 411 158 42638 1000 29 385 190 425 147 39856 1000 30 375 187 438 137 37234 1000 31 366 183 451 127 34766 1000 32 357 179 464 118 32446 1000 33 348 176 476 110 30269 1000 34 339 172 489 102 28228 1000 35 331 168 501 95 26316 1000 36 323 165 512 88 24526 1000 37 315 161 524 82 22852 1000 38 307 158 535 76 21288 1000 39 300 154 546 71 19826 1000 40 293 151 557 66 18461 1000 14470 2445986 per person 14 2446
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Initial cohort = 1000 people, age 40 Cycle Well Sick Dead Life-years Costs check 1 1000 0 0 1000
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