IEOR 166, Spring 2007 S. Oren MIDTERM II (50 Minutes) Closed Book (Two two sided 8.5x11” note sheets allowed) Problem During the Summer of 2006 Bird Flue scare in Asia, the Hong Kong airport authorities considered installing an infrared temperature scanner that will scan all incoming passengers to detect person with high fever. The scanner under consideration can be set to identify individuals whose body temperature exceeds some set threshold level of (96+T) degrees Fahrenheit (normal body temperature is approximately 96 degrees) where T can be adjusted to a level between 0 and 5. By increasing T the false positive rate can be reduced, i.e. fewer Noninfected (NI) passengers will be stopped but this will also increase the false negative rate i.e., more Infected (I) passengers will pass through the scanner undetected. Based on epidemiological and medical information it was determined that a fraction p of the incoming passengers are infected by the Bird Flue virus. Furthermore, the probabilities that an
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