3.GlobalPop-1 - 3 Global Population Trends(continued...

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Click to edit Master subtitle style 2/10/11 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 3. Global Population Trends (continued) Econ/Demog c175 2011 Ronald Lee January 25 11
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2/10/11 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 Announcements Problem Set 1 is on bSpace. If you need a hard copy, you can pick one up at the Demography building (2232 22
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2/10/11 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 More announcements If you have not confirmed enrollment in class or place on waitlist, you have been sent an email. Confirm today or you will be dropped! Please note the 33
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2/10/11 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 Unconfirmed enrolled (last 4 digits of SID) at 11:40 a.m. today. 2380 3427 3600 5138 5511 5862 6016 44 NOTE: Many of these are people recently moved off of the waitlist. They also need to confirm now that they are enrolled.
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2/10/11 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 Unconfirmed wait-listed as of 11:40 today. Confirm 0463 1634 2620 5811 5982 6240 6814 55
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2/10/11 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 66 Lecture outline: Global Population Trends Fertility Decline How fertility and mortality affect growth rates Population aging
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2/10/11 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 If the serial number has rubbed off your iClicker Even if you have not registered your iClicker, all your clicker responses are automatically registered on-line and assigned to that missing serial number. When you register they will all be assigned to you, even the earlier ones. So don’t worry about missing out! If you have registered it before, go to 77
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2/10/11 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 Readings for Thursday Gary Becker "The Evolution of the Family," Chapter 11 of Gary Becker, A Treatise On The Family (Harvard University Press, 1981) pp. 237–256. Robert S. Pindyk and Daniel L. Rubinfeld (2009) Microeconomics (7th edition) pp. 67–88 and 120–122. (These selections present basic consumer theory, including 88
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2/10/11 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 99 Q1. Global annual population growth rate is about A. 10.7% per year B. .3% per year C. 1.2% per year D. 3.5% per year E. 25% per year
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2/10/11 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 1010 Fertility measures (cont. from last time) Problem with cohort total fertility: we don’t know what it is until a cohort turns 45 or 50. Doesn’t tell us much about fertility now, today. “Period total fertility rate” or TFR Number of births a woman would have who lived her entire life experiencing the fertility conditions of some period, e.g. 2010. First measure age specific birth rates E.g. Births to women age 23 in 2010 divided by number of women age 23 at middle of 2010 (July 1). Now add them all up, across ages 10 or 15 to 45 or 50. The sum is the period total fertility rate (TFR).
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2/10/11 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2011 1111 Other fertility measures you may see Gross reproduction rate (GRR) is like total fertility rate, but refers only to female births.
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